Police Tero 1-3 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Police Tero at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 9 as Police Tero welcome Khon Kaen United to Boonyachinda Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 October 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Police Tero have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: L L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Boonyachinda Stadium, Police Tero have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Police Tero are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Police Tero register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Khon Kaen United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Police Tero, 0 for Khon Kaen United and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–0 with Police Tero winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Police Tero in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Khon Kaen United in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 68% versus Khon Kaen United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 63% | Khon Kaen United 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 2.56 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.039 / defence 1.043 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.862 / defence 1.416. League average goals — home 1.739 / away 1.257. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.416 — this is suppressing Police Tero's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Police Tero games / 38 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 68% | Draw 18% | Khon Kaen United 14%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 1.47 | Draw 5.56 | Khon Kaen United 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Police Tero (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.56 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Police Tero at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 90% | Khon Kaen United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 68% | Draw 18% | Khon Kaen United 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 63% | xG Police Tero 2.56 / Khon Kaen United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.039 / def 1.043 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.862 / def 1.416 | league avg home 1.739 / away 1.257 • Poisson stance: Police Tero (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.56
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Khon Kaen United xG
63%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 13:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United?
Police Tero 1 - 3 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 68% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Police Tero the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Police Tero and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Khon Kaen United?
Record (4 meetings): Police Tero 1W | Draws 3 | Khon Kaen United 0W.
What form are Police Tero and Khon Kaen United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Police Tero's attack at 1.04x the league average against Khon Kaen United's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Police Tero's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.2%), 1-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Police Tero Win
68%
1.48
18%
5.58
14%
6.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.56
Police Tero xG
Total xG
3.69
1.13
Khon Kaen United xG
1.48
68%
Home win
5.58
18%
Draw
6.97
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
8%
12.92
Win to Nil
22%
4.57
1%
90.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.2%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 2.56 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.13 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Police Tero's recent record stands at 14W 12D 12L from 38 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 15L across 38 games — 1.03 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Police Tero on 1.42 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Police Tero have managed 9W 8D 2L from 19 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.42 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Khon Kaen United's away record stands at 1W 7D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.53 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Khon Kaen United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Police Tero come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Police Tero are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.87 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Police Tero have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 games (1.42 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 8W 15D 15L in their last 38 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Police Tero's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.84 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Khon Kaen United have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Apr 2024, when Khon Kaen United won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Police Tero's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Police Tero
3
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 1, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2024, when Khon Kaen United 4-0 Police Tero.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Khon Kaen United?
Khon Kaen United have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Police Tero 68%, Khon Kaen United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Police Tero) and 37% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Khon Kaen United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Khon Kaen United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Police Tero's games and 53% of Khon Kaen United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Police Tero's recent games and 37% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Khon Kaen United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Police Tero.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Police Tero 1-3 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 2.56 xG and Khon Kaen United 1.13 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Police Tero fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Khon Kaen United outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.86 / defence 1.42, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 68% | Draw 18% | Khon Kaen United 14%, with Police Tero to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a Khon Kaen United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 63%, Khon Kaen United 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Police Tero 1.42 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Police Tero (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.