Lamphun Warrior 2-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lamphun Warrior at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior host BG Pathum United at Mae Guang Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 20). Kick-off is Saturday 2 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, BG Pathum United have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
BG Pathum United's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Lamphun Warrior have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 60% of BG Pathum United's (from Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and BG Pathum United's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for BG Pathum United and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Lamphun Warrior 0–3 BG Pathum United — a BG Pathum United win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BG Pathum United in-play tendencies (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 50% versus BG Pathum United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 50% | BG Pathum United 56%). Note also that BG Pathum United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Lamphun Warrior recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.61 xG and BG Pathum United 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.137 / defence 0.998 | BG Pathum United attack 0.994 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.217. Data: built from Lamphun Warrior's last 48 games and BG Pathum United's last 49.
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 27%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.22 | Draw 3.53 | BG Pathum United 3.74. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lamphun Warrior are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamphun Warrior's last 10 home games and BG Pathum United's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamphun Warrior 80% (last 10 home games) | BG Pathum United 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 20 | Venue: Mae Guang Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.61 / BG Pathum United 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 1.137 / def 0.998 | BG Pathum United attack 0.994 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.21
BG Pathum United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United FAQs
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Mae Guang Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Mae Guang Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 20) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 45% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (1.14) and BG Pathum United's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lamphun Warrior's last 48 games and BG Pathum United's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
45%
2.22
28%
3.53
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.82
1.21
BG Pathum United xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
20%
5.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.44
5%
18.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.6 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.21 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 16W 13D 19L from 48 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 21W 12D 15L across 48 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-W-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.27 PPG, BG Pathum United on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 12W 6D 6L from their last 24 home games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.27 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 6W 8D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.58 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
Lamphun Warrior (Home) vs BG Pathum United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United Form FAQs
What form are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 16W 13D 19L in their last 48 games (1.27 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 21W 12D 15L in their last 48 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or BG Pathum United away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.75 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 10 January 2026, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Feb 2023, when Lamphun Warrior won Lamphun Warrior 3-0 BG Pathum United.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Lamphun Warrior
2
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 January 2026: Lamphun Warrior 1-1 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
BG Pathum United see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 62%, BG Pathum United 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamphun Warrior) and 46% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lamphun Warrior vs BG Pathum United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 42% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 46% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and BG Pathum United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Lamphun Warrior's recent matches and 58% of BG Pathum United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over BG Pathum United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat BG Pathum United 2-0 at Mae Guang Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.61 xG and BG Pathum United 1.21 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. BG Pathum United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against BG Pathum United attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 45% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 27%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 50%, BG Pathum United 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.27 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.