Chiangrai United 0-2 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Chiangrai United at 51%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Chiangrai United vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

Chiangrai United welcome Lamphun Warrior to Singha Chiangrai Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 24 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Chiangrai United stand at 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Chiangrai United's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Chiangrai United are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Lamphun Warrior — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. Lamphun Warrior's 1.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Chiangrai United's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Chiangrai United's games and 60% of Lamphun Warrior's (from Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Chiangrai United, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Sep 2023, ended Chiangrai United 1–2 Lamphun Warrior — a Lamphun Warrior win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Chiangrai United in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (last 47 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Chiangrai United 70% and Lamphun Warrior 51% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chiangrai United 57% | Lamphun Warrior 51%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Chiangrai United surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Lamphun Warrior have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Chiangrai United 1.79 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chiangrai United attack 0.946 / defence 0.917 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.027 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.226. Data: built from Chiangrai United's last 48 games and Lamphun Warrior's last 47.

Result probabilities: Chiangrai United 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Chiangrai United 1.97 | Draw 3.80 | Lamphun Warrior 4.38. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Chiangrai United as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Chiangrai United's last 10 home games and Lamphun Warrior's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 home games) | Lamphun Warrior 60% (last 10 away games).

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