Khon Kaen United 0-0 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Port FC (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Khon Kaen United face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 20 as Khon Kaen United welcome Port FC to Khon Kaen Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khon Kaen United at Khon Kaen Stadium this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Port FC have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Port FC's 2.00 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Khon Kaen United's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Khon Kaen United register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Port FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Khon Kaen United, 3 for Port FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 1–6 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Port FC trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khon Kaen United 49% and Port FC 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 41% | Port FC 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.06 xG and Port FC 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.822 / defence 0.876 | Port FC attack 1.298 / defence 0.799. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.235. Port FC's defence strength of 0.799 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Port FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.298 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Khon Kaen United games / 49 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Port FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Khon Kaen United 60% | Port FC 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Khon Kaen United 1.06 / Port FC 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.822 / def 0.876 | Port FC attack 1.298 / def 0.799 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Port FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Port FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 0 Port FC.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 27% chance of winning, Port FC a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Khon Kaen United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Khon Kaen United 1W | Draws 1 | Port FC 3W.
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in?
Khon Kaen United (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Khon Kaen United's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Port FC's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.3%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
27%
3.74
30%
3.32
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.47
1.41
Port FC xG
3.74
27%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
15%
6.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.7 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.41 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Khon Kaen United's recent record stands at 11W 20D 18L from 49 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 13D 10L across 49 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khon Kaen United heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Khon Kaen United have managed 8W 12D 4L from 24 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 9W 9D 6L across 24 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Khon Kaen United are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 2.06 scored and 1.27 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 73%.
Last 49 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Khon Kaen United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 20D 18L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Port FC have gone 26W 13D 10L in their last 49 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Port FC away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.50 PPG; Port FC away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Sep 2023, when Port FC won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
4
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Khon Kaen United have won 2, Port FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2025, when Port FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 46%, Port FC 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Khon Kaen United) and 58% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Khon Kaen United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 46% of Khon Kaen United's games and 75% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Khon Kaen United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 58% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Port FC tend to score early?
Khon Kaen United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khon Kaen United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 20, as Khon Kaen United and Port FC drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.06 xG and Port FC 1.41 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Port FC landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.82 / defence 0.88 against Port FC attack 1.30 / defence 0.80, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 27% | Draw 30% | Port FC 43%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 41%, Port FC 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Port FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Port FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.