Khon Kaen United 0-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Khon Kaen United at 43%, yet the head-to-head data favours Chiangrai United — this Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Khon Kaen United welcome Chiangrai United to Khon Kaen Stadium in Thai League 1 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Monday 19 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Khon Kaen United stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Khon Kaen United at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United — last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, Chiangrai United have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Khon Kaen United 1.30 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Khon Kaen United's last 10 home games and Chiangrai United's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Chiangrai United have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Khon Kaen United.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Khon Kaen United 0–2 Chiangrai United — a Chiangrai United win.
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Khon Kaen United trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Chiangrai United trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Khon Kaen United 51% and Chiangrai United 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Khon Kaen United 43% | Chiangrai United 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Khon Kaen United 1.50 xG and Chiangrai United 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Khon Kaen United attack 0.908 / defence 0.974 | Chiangrai United attack 0.950 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.255. Data: built from Khon Kaen United's last 47 games and Chiangrai United's last 47.
Result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 43% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 27%. Fair-value odds: Khon Kaen United 2.34 | Draw 3.32 | Chiangrai United 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Khon Kaen United as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Khon Kaen United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Khon Kaen United 70% (last 10 home games) | Chiangrai United 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 18 | Venue: Khon Kaen Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 19 February 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Khon Kaen United 43% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Khon Kaen United 1.50 / Chiangrai United 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Khon Kaen United attack 0.908 / def 0.974 | Chiangrai United attack 0.950 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.255 • Poisson stance: Khon Kaen United (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Khon Kaen United xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United FAQs
What time does Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Monday 19 February 2024 at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What was the final score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Khon Kaen United 0 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Khon Kaen Stadium.
What competition is Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United part of?
Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 18) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Khon Kaen United a 43% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Khon Kaen United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Khon Kaen United's attack at 0.91x the league average against Chiangrai United's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Khon Kaen United's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Khon Kaen United's last 47 games and Chiangrai United's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Khon Kaen United Win
43%
2.34
30%
3.32
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Khon Kaen United xG
Total xG
2.66
1.16
Chiangrai United xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
31%
3.20
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
6%
16.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Khon Kaen United and 1.16 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Khon Kaen United come into this having played 47 games, going 11W 19D 17L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.47 PPG from 47 outings (18W 15D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Khon Kaen United on 1.11 PPG, Chiangrai United on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Khon Kaen United's home form reads 8W 11D 4L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Khon Kaen United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 1.09 points per game from their last 23 away games (6W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Khon Kaen United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Khon Kaen United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.40 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 70%.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
Khon Kaen United (Home) vs Chiangrai United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Khon Kaen United
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United Form FAQs
What form are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Khon Kaen United have gone 11W 19D 17L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 18W 15D 14L in their last 47 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Khon Kaen United at home or Chiangrai United away?
Khon Kaen United's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Khon Kaen United at home: 1.52 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Khon Kaen United's record when hosting Chiangrai United specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Khon Kaen United
2
Draws
5
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Khon Kaen United have won 1, Chiangrai United have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2025: Khon Kaen United 3-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United?
Chiangrai United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Khon Kaen United 48%, Chiangrai United 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Khon Kaen United) and 65% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Khon Kaen United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Khon Kaen United have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Khon Kaen United home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Khon Kaen United vs Chiangrai United Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Khon Kaen United's games and 70% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Khon Kaen United's recent games and 65% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Khon Kaen United's recent matches and 83% of Chiangrai United's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Khon Kaen United's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Khon Kaen Stadium, Regular Season - 18, as Khon Kaen United and Chiangrai United drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Khon Kaen United 1.50 xG and Chiangrai United 1.16 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Khon Kaen United fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Chiangrai United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Khon Kaen United attack 0.91 / defence 0.97 against Chiangrai United attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Khon Kaen United 43% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 27%, with Khon Kaen United to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Khon Kaen United 43%, Chiangrai United 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Khon Kaen United 1.11 PPG, Chiangrai United 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.