Varbergs BoIS FC 2-1 Oddevold – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Varbergs BoIS FC face Oddevold.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Varbergs BoIS FC welcome Oddevold to Varberg Energi Arena in Superettan (matchday 9). Kick-off is Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Varbergs BoIS FC — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.798 / defence 1.347 | Oddevold attack 0.842 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 0.967. Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.25. Varbergs BoIS FC's defence rating of 1.347 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Oddevold's projected output up. Data: built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 8 games and Oddevold's last 8.
Result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31%. Fair-value odds: Varbergs BoIS FC 2.62 | Draw 3.20 | Oddevold 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Varbergs BoIS FC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Varbergs BoIS FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold | Competition: Superettan, matchday 9 | Venue: Varberg Energi Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 23 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 / Oddevold 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.798 / def 1.347 | Oddevold attack 0.842 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.333 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Varbergs BoIS FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Oddevold xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold FAQs
What time does Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold kick off?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Thursday 23 May 2024 at Varberg Energi Arena.
What was the final score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Varbergs BoIS FC 2 - 1 Oddevold.
Where is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold being played?
The match is being played at Varberg Energi Arena.
What competition is Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold part of?
Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold is a Superettan fixture (matchday 9) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our statistical model gives Varbergs BoIS FC a 38% chance of winning, Oddevold a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Varbergs BoIS FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Varbergs BoIS FC's attack rating (0.80) and Oddevold's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Oddevold's attack versus Varbergs BoIS FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Varbergs BoIS FC's last 8 games and Oddevold's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Varbergs BoIS FC Win
38%
2.62
31%
3.20
31%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Oddevold xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.28
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1.10 for Oddevold, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Varbergs BoIS FC (Home) vs Oddevold (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Varbergs BoIS FC
Pre-Season
Oddevold
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Varbergs BoIS FC have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Varbergs BoIS FC's record when hosting Oddevold specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Varbergs BoIS FC
1
Draws
2
Oddevold
Recent Meetings
❓ Varbergs BoIS FC vs Oddevold H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 3, Oddevold have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Varbergs BoIS FC 3-1 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Varbergs BoIS FC and Oddevold?
Varbergs BoIS FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Varbergs BoIS FC home games / Oddevold away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Varbergs BoIS FC edge out Oddevold 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Oddevold 2-1 at Varberg Energi Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Varbergs BoIS FC 1.25 xG and Oddevold 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Varbergs BoIS FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.35 against Oddevold attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Varbergs BoIS FC 38% | Draw 31% | Oddevold 31%, with Varbergs BoIS FC to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.