Osters IF 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Osters IF (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osters IF face Landskrona BoIS.

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Analysis

Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Visma Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.

Current Form

Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Osters IF have posted 6W 2D 2L at Visma Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visma Arena.

Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Osters IF. A 0.60 PPG lead over Landskrona BoIS (1.80 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours Osters IF, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Landskrona BoIS — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Osters IF and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Data

Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Osters IF 65% and Landskrona BoIS 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 62% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.26 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.108 / defence 0.746 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.375 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Landskrona BoIS have an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Osters IF's defence rating of 0.746 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Osters IF games / 38 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osters IF 42% | Draw 32% | Landskrona BoIS 26%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Landskrona BoIS 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Osters IF 40% | Landskrona BoIS 70%.

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