Orgryte IS 1-2 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Trelleborg at 34% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Trelleborg at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 3D 5L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Trelleborg have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Orgryte IS at 1.60 PPG versus Trelleborg's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Orgryte IS register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Trelleborg in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Trelleborg have the better historical record — 4 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Orgryte IS.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Trelleborg winning.
It is worth noting that Trelleborg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Orgryte IS trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 55% versus Trelleborg 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 53% | Trelleborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.04 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / defence 1.309 | Trelleborg attack 0.862 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Data: 38 Orgryte IS games / 38 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 33% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 34%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 3.03 | Draw 3.03 | Trelleborg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Orgryte IS 60% | Trelleborg 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 33% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Orgryte IS 1.04 / Trelleborg 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 0.909 / def 1.309 | Trelleborg attack 0.862 / def 0.865 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Trelleborg xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Orgryte IS 1 - 2 Trelleborg.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg part of?
Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 33% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Orgryte IS and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Record (6 meetings): Orgryte IS 0W | Draws 2 | Trelleborg 4W.
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 0.91x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
33%
3.02
33%
2.99
34%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.09
1.05
Trelleborg xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.99
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
12%
8.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 1.05 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Orgryte IS come into this having played 60 games, going 19W 18D 23L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (23W 15D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Orgryte IS on 1.25 PPG, Trelleborg on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Orgryte IS's home form reads 8W 11D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.30 points per game from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Orgryte IS are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.43 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 63%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Current Season
Trelleborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orgryte IS and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Orgryte IS have gone 19W 18D 23L in their last 60 games (1.25 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orgryte IS at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orgryte IS at home: 1.17 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Orgryte IS
2
Draws
6
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 2, Trelleborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 25 September 2025, when Trelleborg 0-2 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orgryte IS 57%, Trelleborg 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Orgryte IS) and 60% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orgryte IS play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Orgryte IS's games and 70% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Orgryte IS vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Orgryte IS's matches and 60% of Trelleborg's.
Do Orgryte IS and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Orgryte IS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out Orgryte IS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat Orgryte IS 1-2 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.04 xG and Trelleborg 1.05 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Trelleborg outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 0.91 / defence 1.31 against Trelleborg attack 0.86 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 33% | Draw 33% | Trelleborg 34%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orgryte IS 53%, Trelleborg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orgryte IS's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Orgryte IS 1.25 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trelleborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.