Landskrona BoIS 2-1 Gais – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Gais at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Landskrona BoIS vs Gais encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Landskrona BoIS and Gais meet at Landskrona Idrottsplats in Superettan (matchday 21). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Landskrona BoIS's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Landskrona BoIS's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Gais (all games): 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 — 1.90 points per game. Last five: D D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Gais's away record over their last 9 away games: 4W 4D 1L (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 9 away games (56%) — they are hard to break down on the road.

Gais arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Landskrona BoIS edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 22 Apr 2023, ended Landskrona BoIS 0–2 Gais — a Gais win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).

Gais half-time and goal-timing data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 55% versus Gais 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 55% | Gais 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 0.93 xG and Gais 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.940 / defence 0.970 | Gais attack 1.087 / defence 0.651. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.202. Gais bring a tight defence (rating 0.651, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Landskrona BoIS's projected output down. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 50 games and Gais's last 20.

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 26% | Draw 31% | Gais 43%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 3.86 | Draw 3.21 | Gais 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 60% (last 10 home games) | Gais 44% (last 9 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights