Gais 3-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face Skövde AIK.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to Gais versus Skövde AIK in Superettan (matchday 20). Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Gais have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gais's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Skövde AIK (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Skövde AIK have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Gais against 1.40 for Skövde AIK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Gais, 0 for Skövde AIK and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 9 Jul 2023, ended Gais 0–0 Skövde AIK — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Gais half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Skövde AIK half-time and goal-timing data (last 19 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 37% versus Skövde AIK 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gais 53% | Skövde AIK 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.88 xG and Skövde AIK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 1.017 / defence 1.073 | Skövde AIK attack 0.754 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.171. Skövde AIK's defence rating of 1.232 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gais's projected output up. Skövde AIK's attack rating of 0.754 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.95. Data: built from Gais's last 19 games and Skövde AIK's last 49.
Result probabilities: Gais 58% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 17%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.72 | Draw 4.12 | Skövde AIK 5.72. The model has a clear lean to Gais (58%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gais are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gais 30% (last 10 home games) | Skövde AIK 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, matchday 20 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 58% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Gais 1.88 / Skövde AIK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 1.017 / def 1.073 | Skövde AIK attack 0.754 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Gais (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Gais xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Skövde AIK xG
53%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs Skövde AIK FAQs
What time does Gais vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Gais vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Skövde AIK?
Gais 3 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Gais vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Skövde AIK part of?
Gais vs Skövde AIK is a Superettan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 58% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Gais and Skövde AIK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gais vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gais's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Skövde AIK's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. Flip it around — Skövde AIK's attack (0.75x) against Gais's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 19 games and Skövde AIK's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
58%
1.72
24%
4.12
17%
5.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Gais xG
Total xG
2.83
0.95
Skövde AIK xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
5.72
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
23%
4.43
3%
37.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs Skövde AIK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Gais and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Gais and 0.95 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Skövde AIK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais come into this having played 19 games, going 9W 6D 4L for 1.74 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Skövde AIK sit at 0.84 PPG from 19 outings (4W 4D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Gais carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of Skövde AIK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Gais's home form reads 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 home games, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Skövde AIK have taken 0.40 points per game from their last 10 away games (1W 1D 8L). That's a step down from their 0.84 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Skövde AIK's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Skövde AIK are on 0.84 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Gais have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
Gais (Home) vs Skövde AIK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Blended
Skövde AIK
Blended
❓ Gais vs Skövde AIK Form FAQs
What form are Gais and Skövde AIK in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 9W 6D 4L in their last 19 games (1.74 PPG), while Skövde AIK have gone 4W 4D 11L in their last 19 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Skövde AIK away?
Gais's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.70 PPG; Skövde AIK away: 0.40 PPG.
Have Gais or Skövde AIK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gais have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Skövde AIK in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Gais and Skövde AIK, the earliest from July 2023. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 28 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Gais
1
Draws
0
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs Skövde AIK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Skövde AIK?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 1, Skövde AIK have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Gais and Skövde AIK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2023: Gais 3-1 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Skövde AIK?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Skövde AIK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 30% (Gais) and 40% (Skövde AIK) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Gais) and 60% (Skövde AIK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gais keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Gais have failed to score in 30% of games; Skövde AIK in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gais vs Skövde AIK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gais and Skövde AIK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Gais's recent matches and 40% of Skövde AIK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gais and Skövde AIK matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Gais's matches and 60% of Skövde AIK's.
Do Gais and Skövde AIK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Gais's recent matches and 60% of Skövde AIK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gais cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Skövde AIK 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.88 xG and Skövde AIK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 1.02 / defence 1.07 against Skövde AIK attack 0.75 / defence 1.23, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 58% | Draw 24% | Skövde AIK 17%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 53%, Skövde AIK 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Skövde AIK's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Gais (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm. Skövde AIK (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.