Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Jonkopings Sodra at 47%, yet in-form Landskrona BoIS provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadsparksvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Landskrona BoIS in Superettan (matchday 22). Kick-off: Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Jonkopings Sodra have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Jonkopings Sodra's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Landskrona BoIS (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Landskrona BoIS's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.

On a straight form reading, Landskrona BoIS are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 2 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 7 Jul 2023, ended Jonkopings Sodra 1–1 Landskrona BoIS — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Jonkopings Sodra half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Landskrona BoIS half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 69% and Landskrona BoIS 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 63% | Landskrona BoIS 53%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jonkopings Sodra surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Landskrona BoIS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 37% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.81 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 1.030 / defence 1.145 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.992 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.204. Data: built from Jonkopings Sodra's last 51 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 51.

Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 47% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 28%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.14 | Draw 3.93 | Landskrona BoIS 3.58. Jonkopings Sodra hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Landskrona BoIS (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Jonkopings Sodra's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jonkopings Sodra 70% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights