GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIF Sundsvall face Jonkopings Sodra.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
GIF Sundsvall host Jonkopings Sodra at NP3 Arena in Superettan (matchday 20). Kick-off is Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
GIF Sundsvall at home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Jonkopings Sodra have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: GIF Sundsvall 0.70 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 70% of Jonkopings Sodra's (from GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, Jonkopings Sodra 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 15 Jul 2023, ended GIF Sundsvall 0–1 Jonkopings Sodra — a Jonkopings Sodra win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — GIF Sundsvall 57% and Jonkopings Sodra 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 61% | Jonkopings Sodra 63%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Jonkopings Sodra have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.60 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.819 / defence 1.302 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.982 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.171. Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating of 1.297 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing GIF Sundsvall's projected output up. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.302 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output up. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 19 games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 49.
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.56 | Draw 3.84 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.60 / 1.50) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 10 away games) averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 home games) | Jonkopings Sodra 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, matchday 20 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 28 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.60 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.819 / def 1.302 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.982 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra FAQs
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 28 August 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
GIF Sundsvall 3 - 2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Superettan fixture (matchday 20) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 39% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
GIF Sundsvall's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Jonkopings Sodra's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from GIF Sundsvall's last 19 games and Jonkopings Sodra's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.84
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.09
1.50
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
20%
4.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.44
7%
14.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.50 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 49 games, going 9W 7D 33L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-L.
On the other side, Jonkopings Sodra sit at 1.24 PPG from 49 outings (15W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 6W 3D 15L across their last 24 home games, a 0.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Jonkopings Sodra have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 24 away games (5W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 2.35 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.47 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 69%.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
GIF Sundsvall (Home) vs Jonkopings Sodra (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra Form FAQs
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 9W 7D 33L in their last 49 games (0.69 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 16D 18L in their last 49 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Jonkopings Sodra's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.88 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2021. All of them came in Superettan. The most recent in our data was on 28 August 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2023: GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 83% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — GIF Sundsvall at 67%, Jonkopings Sodra at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for GIF Sundsvall and 58% for Jonkopings Sodra. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ GIF Sundsvall vs Jonkopings Sodra Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 67% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 58% of Jonkopings Sodra's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Jonkopings Sodra matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 71% of Jonkopings Sodra's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as GIF Sundsvall edge out Jonkopings Sodra 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.60 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.50 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.98 / defence 1.30, drawn from 19/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 39% | Draw 26% | Jonkopings Sodra 35%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 61%, Jonkopings Sodra 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Jonkopings Sodra arrived the stronger side — 1.24 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.