IFK Norrkoping 1-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as IFK Norrkoping face IF Brommapojkarna.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IFK Norrkoping welcome IF Brommapojkarna to PlatinumCars Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 27). Kick-off is Monday 21 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
IFK Norrkoping — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Norrkoping's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Norrkoping at 1.00 PPG versus IF Brommapojkarna's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for IFK Norrkoping, 2 for IF Brommapojkarna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended IFK Norrkoping 1–2 IF Brommapojkarna — a IF Brommapojkarna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IFK Norrkoping trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 62% and IF Brommapojkarna 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 62% | IF Brommapojkarna 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.839 / defence 1.315 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.232 / defence 1.255. League average goals — home 1.472 / away 1.223. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Norrkoping's projected output up. IF Brommapojkarna have an above-average attack rating of 1.232, which lifts their away xG to 1.98. IFK Norrkoping's defence rating of 1.315 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Brommapojkarna's projected output up. Data: built from IFK Norrkoping's last 56 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 56.
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 30% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 47%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 3.36 | Draw 4.38 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.11. IF Brommapojkarna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.98) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.53 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IFK Norrkoping's last 10 home games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IFK Norrkoping 50% (last 10 home games) | IF Brommapojkarna 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 27 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 October 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 30% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.55 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.839 / def 1.315 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.232 / def 1.255 | league avg home 1.472 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.98
IF Brommapojkarna xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna FAQs
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Monday 21 October 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 27) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 30% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IFK Norrkoping's last 56 games and IF Brommapojkarna's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
30%
3.36
23%
4.38
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.53
1.98
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.36
30%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
14%
7.25
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
4%
24.33
10%
9.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.98 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping's recent record stands at 19W 11D 26L from 56 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 24L across 56 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Norrkoping on 1.21 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Norrkoping have managed 12W 3D 13L from their last 28 home games — 1.39 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 10W 5D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.25 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.57 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IFK Norrkoping (Home) vs IF Brommapojkarna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna Form FAQs
What form are IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 11D 26L in their last 56 games (1.21 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 19W 13D 24L in their last 56 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.39 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 2 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: IF Brommapojkarna have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
IFK Norrkoping
2
Draws
4
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, IFK Norrkoping have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 August 2025: IF Brommapojkarna 6-4 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, IF Brommapojkarna 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (IFK Norrkoping) and 64% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IFK Norrkoping vs IF Brommapojkarna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 61% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 82% of IF Brommapojkarna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and IF Brommapojkarna finished level at 1-1 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.55 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.98 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.84 / defence 1.31 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.23 / defence 1.25, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 30% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 47%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 62%, IF Brommapojkarna 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.21 PPG, IF Brommapojkarna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.