IF Brommapojkarna 3-3 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours IF Elfsborg (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as IF Brommapojkarna face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna welcome IF Elfsborg to Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 1 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 3D 4L — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, IF Elfsborg stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. IF Elfsborg's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, IF Elfsborg have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches against 0 for IF Brommapojkarna. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Jul 2024, ended IF Brommapojkarna 0–3 IF Elfsborg — a IF Elfsborg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. IF Elfsborg have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 3.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
IF Elfsborg trading profile (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 58% versus IF Elfsborg 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 64% | IF Elfsborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.935 / defence 1.294 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.064 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.354. IF Brommapojkarna's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IF Elfsborg's projected output up. Data: built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 50 games and IF Elfsborg's last 50.
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 45%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 3.06 | Draw 4.49 | IF Elfsborg 2.22. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 67% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% — both xG figures (1.57 / 1.86) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (IF Brommapojkarna's last 10 home games and IF Elfsborg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: IF Brommapojkarna 60% (last 10 home games) | IF Elfsborg 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 21 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 67% (No 33%) | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 / IF Elfsborg 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.935 / def 1.294 | IF Elfsborg attack 1.064 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.86
IF Elfsborg xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
IF Brommapojkarna 3 - 3 IF Elfsborg.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 21) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 33% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 45% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. The same calculation in reverse, IF Elfsborg's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from IF Brommapojkarna's last 50 games and IF Elfsborg's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
33%
3.06
22%
4.49
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.43
1.86
IF Elfsborg xG
3.06
33%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.02
Clean Sheet
16%
6.45
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
5%
19.72
9%
10.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.5 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.86 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IF Brommapojkarna's recent record stands at 17W 11D 22L from 50 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five.
IF Elfsborg, meanwhile, have gone 30W 6D 14L across 50 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Elfsborg by 0.68 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IF Brommapojkarna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IF Brommapojkarna have managed 7W 6D 11L from their last 24 home games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Elfsborg's away record stands at 12W 2D 10L across their last 24 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.96 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Form FAQs
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 games (1.24 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 30W 6D 14L in their last 50 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.12 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.58 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2023. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was as recently as 6 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won IF Elfsborg 5-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting IF Elfsborg specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, IF Elfsborg have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 September 2026: IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 58%, IF Elfsborg 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for IF Brommapojkarna and 58% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 33% of games; IF Elfsborg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ IF Brommapojkarna vs IF Elfsborg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 46% of IF Elfsborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 58% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 67% of IF Elfsborg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna and IF Elfsborg finished level at 3-3 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.57 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.86 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Elfsborg outscored their 1.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.94 / defence 1.29 against IF Elfsborg attack 1.06 / defence 1.08, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 33% | Draw 22% | IF Elfsborg 45%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 64%, IF Elfsborg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.