IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as IFK Goteborg face Hammarby FF.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as IFK Goteborg welcome Hammarby FF to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Hammarby FF have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Hammarby FF's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of IFK Goteborg's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Goteborg, 3 for Hammarby FF and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 50% versus Hammarby FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | Hammarby FF 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.90 xG and Hammarby FF 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.787 / defence 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 1.175 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.353. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hammarby FF's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 50 IFK Goteborg games / 50 Hammarby FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 21% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 53%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.76 | Draw 4.00 | Hammarby FF 1.89. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | Hammarby FF 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 21% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 47% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.90 / Hammarby FF 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.787 / def 0.995 | Hammarby FF attack 1.175 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Hammarby FF xG
47%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 1 Hammarby FF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 21% chance of winning, Hammarby FF a 53% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Goteborg 1W | Draws 2 | Hammarby FF 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Hammarby FF's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Hammarby FF's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
21%
4.68
25%
3.96
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.48
1.58
Hammarby FF xG
4.68
21%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
4%
22.76
22%
4.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.3 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.58 for Hammarby FF, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 50 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 13W 16D 21L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hammarby FF's form line: 22W 14D 14L from 50 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hammarby FF are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IFK Goteborg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (7W 8D 10L).
On the road, Hammarby FF have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Hammarby FF are on 1.54 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
Hammarby FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 16D 21L in their last 50 games (1.10 PPG), while Hammarby FF have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Hammarby FF away?
Hammarby FF's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.16 PPG; Hammarby FF away: 1.24 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Hammarby FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hammarby FF in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Hammarby FF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting Hammarby FF specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
7
Hammarby FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 1, Hammarby FF have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, Hammarby FF 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (IFK Goteborg) and 48% (Hammarby FF).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF in 40%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 32% of games; Hammarby FF in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Hammarby FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Hammarby FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 36% of Hammarby FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Hammarby FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 48% of Hammarby FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Hammarby FF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Hammarby FF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hammarby FF edge out IFK Goteborg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat IFK Goteborg 0-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.90 xG and Hammarby FF 1.58 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IFK Goteborg fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.79 / defence 0.99 against Hammarby FF attack 1.18 / defence 0.72, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 21% | Draw 25% | Hammarby FF 53%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, Hammarby FF 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hammarby FF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.10. Form held, and they took the win. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.