IFK Norrkoping 3-3 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 21 as IFK Norrkoping welcome BK Hacken to PlatinumCars Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Norrkoping stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping at PlatinumCars Arena this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BK Hacken have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IFK Norrkoping 1.20 PPG, BK Hacken 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Norrkoping register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Norrkoping, 3 for BK Hacken and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 2–1 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Norrkoping in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 63% and BK Hacken 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (IFK Norrkoping 67% | BK Hacken 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG and BK Hacken 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.903 / defence 1.170 | BK Hacken attack 1.109 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.585 / away 1.353. Data: 50 IFK Norrkoping games / 49 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 34% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 43%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | BK Hacken 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Norrkoping 60% | BK Hacken 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 34% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.53 / BK Hacken 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 0.903 / def 1.170 | BK Hacken attack 1.109 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.585 / away 1.353 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
1.75
BK Hacken xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
IFK Norrkoping 3 - 3 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 34% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
Record (7 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 1W | Draws 3 | BK Hacken 3W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IFK Norrkoping's attack at 0.90x the league average against BK Hacken's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Norrkoping's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
34%
2.95
23%
4.36
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.29
1.75
BK Hacken xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 1.75 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 49 games, going 19W 6D 24L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.80 PPG from 49 outings (27W 7D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 12W 1D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.54 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (8W 5D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BK Hacken's season.
The Goals Picture
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 2.20 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; BK Hacken in 67%.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 19W 6D 24L in their last 49 games (1.29 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 27W 7D 15L in their last 49 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or BK Hacken away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.54 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: BK Hacken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2021, when BK Hacken won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Norrkoping's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
5
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, BK Hacken have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when BK Hacken 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 50%, BK Hacken 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for IFK Norrkoping and 67% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 54% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of IFK Norrkoping's matches and 67% of BK Hacken's.
Do IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Norrkoping and BK Hacken finished level at 3-3 at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.53 xG and BK Hacken 1.75 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. BK Hacken outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 0.90 / defence 1.17 against BK Hacken attack 1.11 / defence 1.07, drawn from 50/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 34% | Draw 23% | BK Hacken 43%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 67%, BK Hacken 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.