Gais 2-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gais at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gais face IF Elfsborg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Gamla Ullevi to face Gais in Allsvenskan (matchday 10). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 1.86 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.977 / defence 1.085 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.798 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.399. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 1.213 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gais's projected output up. IF Elfsborg's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.21. Data: built from Gais's last 9 games and IF Elfsborg's last 39.
Result probabilities: Gais 53% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Gais 1.90 | Draw 4.42 | IF Elfsborg 4.05. Gais hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gais at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gais if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 53% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Gais 1.86 / IF Elfsborg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.977 / def 1.085 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.798 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Gais (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.21
IF Elfsborg xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gais vs IF Elfsborg FAQs
What time does Gais vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Gais vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs IF Elfsborg?
Gais 2 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Gais vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Gais vs IF Elfsborg is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 53% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gais the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Gais and IF Elfsborg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Gais vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gais's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against IF Elfsborg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.86. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.80x) against Gais's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from Gais's last 9 games and IF Elfsborg's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gais Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.42
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Gais xG
Total xG
3.08
1.21
IF Elfsborg xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
16%
6.38
4%
26.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gais vs IF Elfsborg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Gais and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Gais and 1.21 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Gais (Home) vs IF Elfsborg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gais
Pre-Season
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent was on 12 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Gais have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Gais
0
Draws
2
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Gais vs IF Elfsborg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and IF Elfsborg?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Gais have won 3, IF Elfsborg have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 July 2026: Gais 1-0 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between Gais and IF Elfsborg?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Gais edge out IF Elfsborg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IF Elfsborg 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 1.86 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.21 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.98 / defence 1.08 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.80 / defence 1.21, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 53% | Draw 23% | IF Elfsborg 25%, with Gais to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.