IFK Varnamo 0-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kalmar FF at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Varnamo host Kalmar FF at Finnvedsvallen in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 May 2024 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Finnvedsvallen, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finnvedsvallen this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kalmar FF stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Varnamo at 2.00 PPG versus Kalmar FF's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 3 for Kalmar FF and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Kalmar FF in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 52% versus Kalmar FF 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 50% | Kalmar FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 1.36 xG and Kalmar FF 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.744 / defence 1.227 | Kalmar FF attack 1.059 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.399. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.36 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 IFK Varnamo games / 39 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 48%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | Kalmar FF 2.08. Kalmar FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.36 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 62% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 40% | Kalmar FF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG IFK Varnamo 1.36 / Kalmar FF 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.744 / def 1.227 | Kalmar FF attack 1.059 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.82
Kalmar FF xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 29% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF?
Record (4 meetings): IFK Varnamo 1W | Draws 0 | Kalmar FF 3W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. The same calculation in reverse, Kalmar FF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
29%
3.48
23%
4.37
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
3.18
1.82
Kalmar FF xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.17
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
5%
21.46
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.82 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Varnamo have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 23W 13D 24L record — W-W-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Kalmar FF's form line: 28W 12D 20L from 60 games, 1.60 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.37 PPG, Kalmar FF on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IFK Varnamo have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (11W 8D 11L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 10W 7D 13L from 30 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.27 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
Kalmar FF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 23W 13D 24L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 28W 12D 20L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Kalmar FF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 1.37 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.23 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Kalmar FF specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
IFK Varnamo
0
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF?
From 6 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Kalmar FF 3-1 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 47%, Kalmar FF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Varnamo) and 53% (Kalmar FF).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Varnamo have failed to score in 33% of games; Kalmar FF in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Kalmar FF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 53% of Kalmar FF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 53% of Kalmar FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IFK Varnamo 0-2 at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 1.36 xG and Kalmar FF 1.82 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.74 / defence 1.23 against Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 29% | Draw 23% | Kalmar FF 48%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 50%, Kalmar FF 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.37 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.