IFK Goteborg 1-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mjallby AIF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF meet at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Goteborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gamla Ullevi — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Mjallby AIF (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.30 for Mjallby AIF. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for IFK Goteborg, 1 for Mjallby AIF and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with IFK Goteborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
IFK Goteborg half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus Mjallby AIF 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | Mjallby AIF 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.670 / defence 1.149 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.054 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.372. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 39 IFK Goteborg games / 39 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 54%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.55 | Draw 4.17 | Mjallby AIF 1.85. Mjallby AIF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mjallby AIF as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mjallby AIF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 50% | Mjallby AIF 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 50% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.96 / Mjallby AIF 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.670 / def 1.149 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.054 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Mjallby AIF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Mjallby AIF xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 May 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 22% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 54% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Mjallby AIF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 3W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 1W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.67x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.05x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mjallby AIF Win
22%
4.60
24%
4.10
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.62
1.66
Mjallby AIF xG
4.60
22%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
19%
5.27
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
24.22
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.66 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 22W 13D 25L from 60 games, a 1.32 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Mjallby AIF, meanwhile, have gone 23W 15D 22L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.40 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mjallby AIF's away record stands at 14W 6D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.08 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
Mjallby AIF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.60 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Goteborg won 1-4 on 5 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 1-1 Mjallby AIF.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Mjallby AIF see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, Mjallby AIF 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 37% for IFK Goteborg and 27% for Mjallby AIF.
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 43%; Mjallby AIF in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 27% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IFK Goteborg defy the odds to beat Mjallby AIF 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg beat Mjallby AIF 1-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.96 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.66 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mjallby AIF landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.67 / defence 1.15 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 22% | Draw 24% | Mjallby AIF 54%, with Mjallby AIF to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a IFK Goteborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, Mjallby AIF 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Goteborg win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.