Valencia 3-2 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 49%, yet the head-to-head data favours Alaves — this Valencia vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Alaves make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Valencia (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Valencia have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Alaves have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Alaves's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Valencia, 0.90 for Alaves — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Alaves have the stronger record — 4 wins to Valencia's 1, with 2 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Oct 2025, ended Valencia 0–0 Alaves — a draw.
Alaves have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 56% versus Alaves 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Alaves 39%). Note also that Alaves surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Valencia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.31 xG and Alaves 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.834 / defence 0.955 | Alaves attack 0.726 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.136. Alaves's attack rating of 0.726 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Valencia's last 64 games and Alaves's last 64.
Result probabilities: Valencia 49% | Draw 29% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.05 | Draw 3.44 | Alaves 4.50. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valencia's last 10 home games and Alaves's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Valencia 60% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 8 March 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 49% | Draw 29% | Alaves 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Valencia 1.31 / Alaves 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.834 / def 0.955 | Alaves attack 0.726 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Valencia (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Alaves xG
40%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valencia vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Valencia vs Alaves kick off?
Valencia vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Valencia 3 - 2 Alaves.
Where is Valencia vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Alaves part of?
Valencia vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 49% chance of winning, Alaves a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Valencia and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Valencia vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valencia's attack at 0.83x the league average against Alaves's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (0.73x) against Valencia's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from Valencia's last 64 games and Alaves's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
49%
2.05
29%
3.44
22%
4.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.10
0.79
Alaves xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
4.50
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
22%
4.52
6%
16.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 12.7 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valencia vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Valencia and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Valencia and 0.79 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valencia come into this having played 64 games, going 18W 21D 25L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, Alaves sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (17W 18D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Valencia against 1.08 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valencia's home form reads 14W 9D 9L across their last 32 home games, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Alaves have taken 0.81 points per game from their last 32 away games (6W 8D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.95 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Alaves
Blended
Valencia (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valencia
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Valencia vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Valencia and Alaves in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 18W 21D 25L in their last 64 games (1.17 PPG), while Alaves have gone 17W 18D 29L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Alaves away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Alaves away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Valencia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won Valencia 3-0 Alaves on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Valencia
2
Draws
4
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Valencia vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Valencia have won 3, Alaves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Alaves?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 50%, Alaves 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Valencia) and 47% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Alaves in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valencia vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valencia and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valencia's recent matches and 53% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valencia and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valencia's recent games and 47% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Valencia's recent matches and 66% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Valencia edge out Alaves 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Alaves 3-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.31 xG and Alaves 0.79 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.83 / defence 0.95 against Alaves attack 0.73 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 49% | Draw 29% | Alaves 22%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Alaves 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Alaves's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Alaves (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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