Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osasuna at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 27 as Osasuna welcome Mallorca to Estadio El Sadar. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Osasuna — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
On current form, Osasuna have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Osasuna, 2 for Mallorca and 4 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Mallorca 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 44% | Mallorca 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.160 / defence 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.729 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.133. Data: 64 Osasuna games / 64 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Mallorca 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Osasuna (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 80% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 50% | xG Osasuna 1.97 / Mallorca 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.160 / def 1.055 | Mallorca attack 0.729 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Mallorca xG
50%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Mallorca kick off?
Osasuna vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Osasuna 2 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Osasuna vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Mallorca part of?
Osasuna vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 63% chance of winning, Mallorca a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Osasuna and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Record (9 meetings): Osasuna 3W | Draws 4 | Mallorca 2W.
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in?
Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.16x the league average against Mallorca's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
63%
1.59
21%
4.68
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.84
0.87
Mallorca xG
1.59
63%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
14%
7.18
Win to Nil
26%
3.80
2%
45.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.9 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Osasuna and 0.87 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 21W 22D 21L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 19W 15D 30L from 64 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.33 PPG, Mallorca on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 1.94 PPG from 31 outings (17W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Osasuna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 7W 5D 19L from 31 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.00 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 22D 21L in their last 64 games (1.33 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 15D 30L in their last 64 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Mallorca away?
Osasuna's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.94 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Osasuna's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
5
Draws
2
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Mallorca have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Mallorca?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 71%, Mallorca 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Osasuna) and 48% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Osasuna's games and 45% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Osasuna vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Osasuna's recent games and 48% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Mallorca tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Mallorca share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 27, as Osasuna and Mallorca drew 2-2 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.97 xG and Mallorca 0.87 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.16 / defence 1.05 against Mallorca attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 63% | Draw 21% | Mallorca 16%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Mallorca 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.33 PPG, Mallorca 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Osasuna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.