Valencia 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Osasuna at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Valencia, 3 for Osasuna and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 39% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 57% versus Osasuna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 44% | Osasuna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 0.98 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.825 / defence 1.044 | Osasuna attack 0.871 / defence 0.785. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.130. Osasuna's defence strength of 0.785 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Valencia games / 63 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 33% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 35%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Osasuna as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 60% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 33% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Valencia 0.98 / Osasuna 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.825 / def 1.044 | Osasuna attack 0.871 / def 0.785 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Osasuna xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 1 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 33% chance of winning, Osasuna a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Record (9 meetings): Valencia 4W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 3W.
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.82) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.2%), 0-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
33%
3.07
32%
3.09
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.01
1.03
Osasuna xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.8 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Valencia and 1.03 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 21D 25L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.35 PPG from 63 outings (21W 22D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.14 PPG, Osasuna on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.55 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.81 points per game from 31 outings (4W 13D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.35 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.24 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 17W 21D 25L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 21W 22D 20L in their last 63 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.55 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 39% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 52%, Osasuna 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Valencia and 29% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Osasuna in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Valencia's recent matches and 45% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Valencia's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 39% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valencia defy the odds to beat Osasuna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Osasuna 1-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 0.98 xG and Osasuna 1.03 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Osasuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Osasuna attack 0.87 / defence 0.79, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 33% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 35%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Valencia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 44%, Osasuna 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Osasuna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.14 PPG, Osasuna 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.