Rayo Vallecano 0-2 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Rayo Vallecano take on Las Palmas.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas meet at Estadio de Vallecas in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 January 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Rayo Vallecano (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayo Vallecano at Estadio de Vallecas this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Las Palmas have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Las Palmas have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Las Palmas arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Rayo Vallecano 1W, Las Palmas 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Rayo Vallecano half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Rayo Vallecano 30% | Las Palmas 40%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Rayo Vallecano 35% | Las Palmas 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 0.96 xG and Las Palmas 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.800 / defence 1.085 | Las Palmas attack 0.715 / defence 0.863. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.122. Data: 57 Rayo Vallecano games / 20 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 34% | Draw 37% | Las Palmas 29%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 2.94 | Draw 2.70 | Las Palmas 3.45. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayo Vallecano 60% | Las Palmas 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jan 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 34% | Draw 37% | Las Palmas 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 38% | xG Rayo Vallecano 0.96 / Las Palmas 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.800 / def 1.085 | Las Palmas attack 0.715 / def 0.863 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Las Palmas xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 20 January 2024 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Rayo Vallecano 0 - 2 Las Palmas.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 34% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas?
Record (1 meetings): Rayo Vallecano 1W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 0W.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Las Palmas (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Las Palmas's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.71x) against Rayo Vallecano's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 57/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.93
37%
2.73
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.83
0.87
Las Palmas xG
2.93
34%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.9 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.87 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 5W 8D 7L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Rayo Vallecano is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Las Palmas's form line: 8W 4D 8L from 20 games, 1.40 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Rayo Vallecano against 1.40 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Rayo Vallecano have posted 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (1W 5D 3L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 3W 1D 5L from 9 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.95 scored and 0.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayo Vallecano have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 games (1.15 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 8W 4D 8L in their last 20 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayo Vallecano at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayo Vallecano at home: 0.89 PPG; Las Palmas away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Rayo Vallecano or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayo Vallecano have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayo Vallecano
0
Draws
2
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, Las Palmas have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayo Vallecano 56%, Las Palmas 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for Rayo Vallecano and 22% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano have failed to score in 33% of games; Las Palmas in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 33% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 22% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayo Vallecano and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Rayo Vallecano have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Las Palmas cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Rayo Vallecano.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Rayo Vallecano 0-2 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.96 xG and Las Palmas 0.87 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Las Palmas outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 1.08 against Las Palmas attack 0.71 / defence 0.86, drawn from 57/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 34% | Draw 37% | Las Palmas 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 35%, Las Palmas 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Las Palmas's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayo Vallecano 1.15 PPG, Las Palmas 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.