Las Palmas 1-2 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Madrid at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Real Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Las Palmas welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Gran Canaria. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Las Palmas — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's home record at Estadio de Gran Canaria: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Madrid stand at 8W 2D 0L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.60 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Madrid have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Madrid — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.60 vs 1.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Las Palmas, 1 for Real Madrid and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2023, ended 0–2 with Real Madrid winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Las Palmas trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Real Madrid trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 38% versus Real Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 29% | Real Madrid 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 0.95 xG and Real Madrid 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.942 / defence 0.886 | Real Madrid attack 1.180 / defence 0.729. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.161. Real Madrid's defence strength of 0.729 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 21 Las Palmas games / 58 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 27% | Draw 32% | Real Madrid 41%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Real Madrid 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Madrid as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Las Palmas 50% | Real Madrid 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Real Madrid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 27% | Draw 32% | Real Madrid 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Las Palmas 0.95 / Real Madrid 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.942 / def 0.886 | Real Madrid attack 1.180 / def 0.729 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Real Madrid xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Real Madrid kick off?
Las Palmas vs Real Madrid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?
Las Palmas 1 - 2 Real Madrid.
Where is Las Palmas vs Real Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Real Madrid part of?
Las Palmas vs Real Madrid is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 27% chance of winning, Real Madrid a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Las Palmas and Real Madrid will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Real Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Real Madrid?
Record (1 meetings): Las Palmas 0W | Draws 0 | Real Madrid 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Real Madrid in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Real Madrid (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Real Madrid's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Real Madrid's attack versus Las Palmas's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
27%
3.67
32%
3.10
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.17
1.21
Real Madrid xG
3.67
27%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
16%
6.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.9 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Real Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.21 for Real Madrid, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Real Madrid?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Las Palmas come into this having played 21 games, going 9W 4D 8L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Madrid sit at 2.48 PPG from 21 outings (16W 4D 1L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Madrid carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Las Palmas's home form reads 5W 3D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Madrid have taken 2.30 points per game from 10 outings (7W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Las Palmas are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Real Madrid are on 2.10 scored and 0.67 conceded. Real Madrid's attacking output running into Las Palmas's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Real Madrid in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Real Madrid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Real Madrid in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 9W 4D 8L in their last 21 games (1.48 PPG), while Real Madrid have gone 16W 4D 1L in their last 21 (2.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Real Madrid away?
Real Madrid's away record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.80 PPG; Real Madrid away: 2.30 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Real Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Real Madrid in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Jan 2025, when Real Madrid won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Las Palmas's record when hosting Real Madrid specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Las Palmas
1
Draws
3
Real Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Real Madrid?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 0, Real Madrid have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Real Madrid last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Real Madrid 4-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Las Palmas and Real Madrid?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 50%, Real Madrid 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Las Palmas) and 50% (Real Madrid).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Real Madrid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Real Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Real Madrid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 50% of Real Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Real Madrid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Las Palmas's recent games and 50% of Real Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Real Madrid tend to score early?
Las Palmas have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Real Madrid in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Madrid edge out Las Palmas 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid beat Las Palmas 1-2 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 0.95 xG and Real Madrid 1.21 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.94 / defence 0.89 against Real Madrid attack 1.18 / defence 0.73, drawn from 21/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 27% | Draw 32% | Real Madrid 41%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 29%, Real Madrid 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Real Madrid's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.48 PPG against 1.48. That form edge translated into the three points. Las Palmas (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.