Alaves 1-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alaves vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alaves and Cadiz meet at Estadio de Mendizorroza in La Liga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Alaves have posted 4W 1D 4L at Estadio de Mendizorroza — 1.44 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
Cadiz have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Alaves. A 0.50 PPG lead over Cadiz (1.10 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Alaves, 2 for Cadiz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with Cadiz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Cadiz — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 45% versus Cadiz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 30% | Cadiz 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.753 / defence 1.102 | Cadiz attack 0.753 / defence 1.093. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.130. Alaves's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Alaves games / 58 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 2.63 | Draw 2.94 | Cadiz 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alaves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 33% | Cadiz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Alaves 1.15 / Cadiz 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.753 / def 1.102 | Cadiz attack 0.753 / def 1.093 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Alaves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cadiz xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Cadiz kick off?
Alaves vs Cadiz kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 January 2024 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Alaves 1 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Alaves vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Cadiz part of?
Alaves vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 38% chance of winning, Cadiz a 28% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Alaves and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Cadiz?
Record (3 meetings): Alaves 1W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 2W.
What form are Alaves and Cadiz in?
Alaves (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Cadiz (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alaves's attack rating (0.75) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.75x) against Alaves's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 20/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
38%
2.62
34%
2.92
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Cadiz xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
15%
6.69
9%
11.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Alaves and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Alaves and 0.94 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 2W 9D 9L across 20 games — 0.75 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Alaves against 0.75 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 4W 1D 4L from 9 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Alaves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Cadiz's away record stands at 0W 4D 5L across 9 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 20 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 games (1.00 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 2W 9D 9L in their last 20 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Cadiz away?
Alaves's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.44 PPG; Cadiz away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Alaves
0
Draws
2
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Cadiz?
From 4 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Cadiz have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2024, when Alaves 1-0 Cadiz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 33%, Cadiz 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Alaves and 22% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Alaves have failed to score in 44% of games; Cadiz in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Alaves's recent matches and 56% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Alaves's recent games and 22% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Cadiz tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Alaves edge out Cadiz 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves beat Cadiz 1-0 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.15 xG and Cadiz 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cadiz landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Cadiz attack 0.75 / defence 1.09, drawn from 20/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 38% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 28%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 30%, Cadiz 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cadiz's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.00 PPG, Cadiz 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alaves win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.