Cadiz 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cadiz at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cadiz face Almeria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Almeria travel to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla to take on Cadiz in La Liga (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cadiz have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cadiz at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cadiz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Almeria — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Almeria have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cadiz 1.30 PPG, Almeria 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cadiz have won 0, Almeria 0, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Cadiz 1–1 Almeria — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Almeria trading profile (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 32% versus Almeria 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cadiz 28% | Almeria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.921 / defence 0.862 | Almeria attack 1.085 / defence 1.252. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.072. Almeria's defence rating of 1.252 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cadiz's projected output up. Data: built from Cadiz's last 40 games and Almeria's last 40. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.09 | Draw 3.68 | Almeria 4.02. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cadiz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 20% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 80% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (Cadiz 40 games, Almeria 40) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 3 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Cadiz 1.49 / Almeria 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.921 / def 0.862 | Almeria attack 1.085 / def 1.252 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Cadiz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Almeria xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cadiz vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Cadiz vs Almeria kick off?
Cadiz vs Almeria kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Cadiz 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Cadiz vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Almeria part of?
Cadiz vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 3) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 48% chance of winning, Almeria a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cadiz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cadiz and Almeria will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Cadiz vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cadiz's attack rating (0.92) and Almeria's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cadiz's last 40 games and Almeria's last 40, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cadiz Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.68
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.49
1.00
Almeria xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
6%
17.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cadiz vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.00 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 1.02 PPG from 40 outings (11W 8D 21L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cadiz on 1.12 PPG, Almeria on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cadiz's home form reads 8W 6D 5L across their last 19 home games, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.42 points per game from their last 19 away games (1W 5D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.02 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cadiz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.25 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 65%.
Defensively: Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
Cadiz (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cadiz
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Cadiz vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Cadiz and Almeria in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 8D 21L in their last 40 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Almeria away?
Cadiz's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.58 PPG; Almeria away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Almeria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Almeria in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from December 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 25 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 May 2024, when Almeria won Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Cadiz's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Cadiz vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Almeria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cadiz have won 0, Almeria have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 May 2024: Almeria 6-1 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Almeria?
Almeria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 32%, Almeria 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Cadiz) and 63% (Almeria).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 37% of games; Almeria in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cadiz vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cadiz and Almeria matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Cadiz's recent matches and 68% of Almeria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cadiz and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Cadiz's recent games and 63% of Almeria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 53% of Cadiz's recent matches and 74% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cadiz and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz and Almeria finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.00 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Almeria attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 48% | Draw 27% | Almeria 25%, with Cadiz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Almeria's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cadiz 1.12 PPG, Almeria 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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