Granada CF 3-2 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mallorca at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Granada CF vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Mallorca travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 August 2023, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Granada CF have won 2, Mallorca 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 6–2 with Granada CF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.04 xG and Mallorca 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.695 / defence 1.256 | Mallorca attack 0.916 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.286 / away 1.072. Granada CF's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 Granada CF games / 40 Mallorca games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 30% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 40%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Mallorca 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mallorca at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 30% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Granada CF 1.04 / Mallorca 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.695 / def 1.256 | Mallorca attack 0.916 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.286 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Mallorca xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Mallorca kick off?
Granada CF vs Mallorca kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Granada CF 3 - 2 Mallorca.
Where is Granada CF vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Mallorca part of?
Granada CF vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 30% chance of winning, Mallorca a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Granada CF and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Mallorca?
Record (2 meetings): Granada CF 2W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Mallorca in?
Granada CF (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
30%
3.36
31%
3.26
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.27
1.23
Mallorca xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.52
14%
7.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.23 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 0D 2L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Mallorca carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Granada CF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.50 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Early Season
Mallorca
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Granada CF won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Granada CF's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Granada CF
0
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 3, Mallorca have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Mallorca?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Granada CF's recent matches and 50% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Granada CF vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Granada CF's recent games and 0% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Granada CF defy the odds to beat Mallorca 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Mallorca 3-2 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.04 xG and Mallorca 1.23 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.69 / defence 1.26 against Mallorca attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 30% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 40%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Granada CF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 50%, Mallorca 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Granada CF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Granada CF scored 3 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.