Cadiz 3-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Villarreal at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 4 as Cadiz welcome Villarreal to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 September 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Villarreal stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Cadiz) versus 1.70 (Villarreal). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cadiz, 1 for Villarreal and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Villarreal in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 34% versus Villarreal 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 27% | Villarreal 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.869 / defence 0.836 | Villarreal attack 1.039 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 1.226. Data: 41 Cadiz games / 41 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 34% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Villarreal 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 30% | Villarreal 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 1 Sep 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 34% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Cadiz 1.03 / Villarreal 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.869 / def 0.836 | Villarreal attack 1.039 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.352 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Villarreal xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Villarreal kick off?
Cadiz vs Villarreal kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 1 September 2023 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Cadiz 3 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Cadiz vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Villarreal part of?
Cadiz vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 34% chance of winning, Villarreal a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cadiz and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Record (4 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 2 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in?
Cadiz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Villarreal (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.87x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
34%
2.98
31%
3.19
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Villarreal xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
36%
2.82
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.06 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cadiz's recent record stands at 11W 13D 17L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 20W 7D 14L across 41 games — 1.63 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Villarreal by 0.51 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 8W 7D 5L from 20 games — 1.55 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Cadiz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Villarreal's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cadiz are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.56 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Early Season
Villarreal
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 20W 7D 14L in their last 41 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Villarreal away?
Cadiz's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.55 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Villarreal in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cadiz and Villarreal runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cadiz's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cadiz
3
Draws
1
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Villarreal?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 2, Villarreal have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2024, when Villarreal 0-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Villarreal?
Cadiz have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 35%, Villarreal 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Cadiz) and 45% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Villarreal in 40%; Cadiz have failed to score in 35% of games; Villarreal in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cadiz's recent matches and 40% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Cadiz's recent games and 45% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Cadiz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cadiz beat Villarreal 3-1 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 4, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 1.03 xG and Villarreal 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cadiz beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.87 / defence 0.84 against Villarreal attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 34% | Draw 31% | Villarreal 35%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cadiz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 27%, Villarreal 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Villarreal's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Villarreal arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Cadiz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cadiz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.