Athletic Club 1-1 Granada CF – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Athletic Club at 78% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Granada CF encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Athletic Club and Granada CF meet at San Mamés Barria in La Liga (matchday 32). This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.

Current Form

Athletic Club's record over their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Athletic Club at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Athletic Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Granada CF (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Granada CF's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 road games (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form favours the hosts. Athletic Club's 1.60 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Granada CF's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Granada CF edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Dec 2023, ended Athletic Club 1–1 Granada CF — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Athletic Club — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

Granada CF — key trading statistics (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 36% versus Granada CF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 42% | Granada CF 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 2.48 xG and Granada CF 0.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.285 / defence 0.812 | Granada CF attack 0.713 / defence 1.453. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.076. Athletic Club carry an above-average attack rating of 1.285 — their 2.48 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.453 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Athletic Club's projected output up. Granada CF's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.62. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 69 games and Granada CF's last 31.

Result probabilities: Athletic Club 78% | Draw 15% | Granada CF 7%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.28 | Draw 6.73 | Granada CF 13.83. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (78%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Athletic Club at 78% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Athletic Club's last 10 home games and Granada CF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 40% (last 10 home games) | Granada CF 30% (last 10 away games).

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