Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Madrid at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atletico Madrid face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atletico Madrid host Athletic Club at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano in La Liga (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atletico Madrid stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Atletico Madrid's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Atletico Madrid are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Athletic Club — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Athletic Club have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atletico Madrid at 1.40 PPG versus Athletic Club's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Atletico Madrid, 2 for Athletic Club and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Atletico Madrid 0–2 Athletic Club — a Athletic Club win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Atletico Madrid in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Athletic Club in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Madrid 51% versus Athletic Club 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Madrid 54% | Athletic Club 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Madrid 1.64 xG and Athletic Club 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Madrid attack 1.380 / defence 0.993 | Athletic Club attack 0.851 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.094. Atletico Madrid carry an above-average attack rating of 1.380 — their 1.64 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Atletico Madrid's last 70 games and Athletic Club's last 70.
Result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 25% | Athletic Club 21%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Madrid 1.86 | Draw 3.92 | Athletic Club 4.80. Atletico Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 home games) | Athletic Club 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, matchday 33 | Venue: Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 25% | Athletic Club 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Atletico Madrid 1.64 / Athletic Club 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Madrid attack 1.380 / def 0.993 | Athletic Club attack 0.851 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Atletico Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Athletic Club xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club FAQs
What time does Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club kick off?
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What was the final score in Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Atletico Madrid 3 - 1 Athletic Club.
Where is Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano.
What competition is Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club part of?
Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club is a La Liga fixture (matchday 33) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Madrid a 54% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atletico Madrid's attack rating (1.38) and Athletic Club's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Atletico Madrid's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Madrid's last 70 games and Athletic Club's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
54%
1.86
25%
3.92
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Atletico Madrid xG
Total xG
2.56
0.92
Athletic Club xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
19%
5.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Atletico Madrid and 0.92 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 70 outings, Atletico Madrid have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 42W 12D 16L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Athletic Club's form line: 30W 19D 21L from 70 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Athletic Club.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Atletico Madrid have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 34 home games (27W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Atletico Madrid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 11W 11D 12L from their last 34 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atletico Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Atletico Madrid are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.01 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.41 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
Atletico Madrid (Home) vs Athletic Club (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Madrid
Current Season
Athletic Club
Current Season
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Atletico Madrid have gone 42W 12D 16L in their last 70 games (1.97 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 30W 19D 21L in their last 70 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Madrid at home or Athletic Club away?
Atletico Madrid's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Madrid at home: 2.50 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Atletico Madrid or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Madrid have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Sep 2026, when Athletic Club won Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid.
Atletico Madrid's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atletico Madrid
0
Draws
4
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Madrid have won 6, Athletic Club have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club?
Atletico Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Madrid 65%, Athletic Club 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atletico Madrid) and 41% (Athletic Club). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Athletic Club in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Madrid home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Atletico Madrid's games and 47% of Athletic Club's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Atletico Madrid's matches and 41% of Athletic Club's.
Do Atletico Madrid and Athletic Club matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Atletico Madrid's recent matches and 59% of Athletic Club's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atletico Madrid cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Athletic Club.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Madrid beat Athletic Club 3-1 at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Regular Season - 33, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Madrid 1.64 xG and Athletic Club 0.92 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atletico Madrid beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Madrid attack 1.38 / defence 0.99 against Athletic Club attack 0.85 / defence 0.86, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Madrid 54% | Draw 25% | Athletic Club 21%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Madrid 54%, Athletic Club 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Athletic Club's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.56. Form held, and they took the win. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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