Sevilla 2-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán plays host to Sevilla versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Monday 22 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this season.
Mallorca (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Mallorca away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Sevilla's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Sevilla 2W, Mallorca 1W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sevilla half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 59% versus Mallorca 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 49% | Mallorca 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.26 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.981 / defence 1.218 | Mallorca attack 0.704 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.089. Data: 69 Sevilla games / 69 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Mallorca 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sevilla if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Mallorca 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Sevilla 1.26 / Mallorca 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.981 / def 1.218 | Mallorca attack 0.704 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mallorca xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Mallorca kick off?
Sevilla vs Mallorca kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Sevilla 2 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Sevilla vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Mallorca part of?
Sevilla vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 43% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Sevilla and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.70x) against Sevilla's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.34
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.19
0.93
Mallorca xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.93 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 21W 20D 28L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 20W 21D 28L from 69 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Sevilla against 1.17 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.26 PPG from 34 outings (11W 10D 13L).
On the road, Mallorca have gone 5W 9D 20L from 34 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.90 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Last 69 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 21W 20D 28L in their last 69 games (1.20 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 20W 21D 28L in their last 69 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Mallorca away?
Sevilla's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.26 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Mallorca in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mallorca won 4-1 on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sevilla
4
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Mallorca have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Mallorca 4-1 Sevilla.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 65%, Mallorca 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sevilla) and 35% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Sevilla's recent matches and 38% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sevilla's recent games and 35% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Mallorca tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Mallorca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.26 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.98 / defence 1.22 against Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 43% | Draw 30% | Mallorca 27%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 49%, Mallorca 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.20 PPG, Mallorca 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.