Almeria 1-2 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Almeria at 44%, yet in-form Las Palmas provide a compelling counter-argument — this Almeria vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Almeria welcome Las Palmas to Power Horse Stadium in La Liga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Almeria have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Almeria have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Almeria are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Las Palmas — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 1W 0D 4L in their last 5 away fixtures (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Las Palmas's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Almeria's 0.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Almeria trading profile (last 10 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 60%.
Las Palmas trading profile (last 10 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 80% versus Las Palmas 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 80% | Las Palmas 20%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.43 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.044 / defence 1.452 | Las Palmas attack 0.657 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.176. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Almeria's defence rating of 1.452 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Las Palmas's projected output up. Data: built from Almeria's last 48 games and Las Palmas's last 10.
Result probabilities: Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 2.29 | Draw 3.65 | Las Palmas 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Almeria are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Las Palmas (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Almeria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Almeria 70% (last 10 home games) | Las Palmas 20% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, matchday 11 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Almeria 1.43 / Las Palmas 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.044 / def 1.452 | Las Palmas attack 0.657 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Almeria (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Las Palmas xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Almeria vs Las Palmas FAQs
What time does Almeria vs Las Palmas kick off?
Almeria vs Las Palmas kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Power Horse Stadium.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Almeria 1 - 2 Las Palmas.
Where is Almeria vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium.
What competition is Almeria vs Las Palmas part of?
Almeria vs Las Palmas is a La Liga fixture (matchday 11) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 44% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Almeria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Almeria and Las Palmas will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Almeria vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Almeria's attack at 1.04x the league average against Las Palmas's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Almeria's last 48 games and Las Palmas's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almeria Win
44%
2.29
27%
3.65
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.12
Las Palmas xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
7%
14.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Almeria vs Las Palmas Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Almeria and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Almeria and 1.12 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Almeria's recent record stands at 0W 3D 7L from 10 games, a 0.30 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Las Palmas, meanwhile, have gone 3W 2D 5L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Las Palmas by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Almeria heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Almeria have managed 0W 2D 3L from their last 5 home games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Las Palmas's away record stands at 1W 0D 4L across their last 5 away games, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Las Palmas's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Almeria are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.60 scored and 0.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Las Palmas in 30%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
Almeria (Home) vs Las Palmas (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Almeria
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Almeria vs Las Palmas Form FAQs
What form are Almeria and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 games (0.30 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Las Palmas away?
Las Palmas's away record (0.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 0.40 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from October 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 17 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Almeria
0
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Almeria vs Las Palmas H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Las Palmas?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Almeria have won 1, Las Palmas have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Las Palmas last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 March 2024: Las Palmas 0-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 80%, Las Palmas 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 80% (Almeria) and 20% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Almeria vs Las Palmas Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Almeria and Las Palmas matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Almeria's recent matches and 20% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Almeria and Las Palmas matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 80% of Almeria's recent games and 20% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Las Palmas matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Almeria's recent matches and 40% of Las Palmas's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Almeria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Almeria 1-2 at Power Horse Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.43 xG and Las Palmas 1.12 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Las Palmas outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.04 / defence 1.45 against Las Palmas attack 0.66 / defence 0.91, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 44% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 29%, with Almeria to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Las Palmas win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 80%, Las Palmas 20%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Las Palmas's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Las Palmas arrived the stronger side — 1.10 PPG against 0.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.40 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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