Las Palmas 2-1 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de Gran Canaria plays host to Las Palmas versus Atletico Madrid in La Liga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Las Palmas have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Las Palmas at home: 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from their last 5 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atletico Madrid (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 20% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Atletico Madrid — key trading statistics (last 11 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 36% versus Atletico Madrid 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 27% | Atletico Madrid 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 0.79 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.678 / defence 0.893 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.415 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.229. Las Palmas's attack rating of 0.678 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Atletico Madrid bring a tight defence (rating 0.764, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Las Palmas's projected output down. Atletico Madrid have an above-average attack rating of 1.415, which lifts their away xG to 1.55. Data: built from Las Palmas's last 11 games and Atletico Madrid's last 48.
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 18% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 55%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 5.50 | Draw 3.71 | Atletico Madrid 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Atletico Madrid (55%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Madrid as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Las Palmas 40% (last 5 home games) | Atletico Madrid 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 12 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 3 November 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 18% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Las Palmas 0.79 / Atletico Madrid 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.678 / def 0.893 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.415 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Atletico Madrid (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Atletico Madrid xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid FAQs
What time does Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid kick off?
Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 3 November 2023 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?
Las Palmas 2 - 1 Atletico Madrid.
Where is Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid part of?
Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 12) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 18% chance of winning, Atletico Madrid a 55% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atletico Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Las Palmas's attacking strength (0.68x league average) is weighed against Atletico Madrid's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.79. Flip it around — Atletico Madrid's attack (1.42x) against Las Palmas's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
These ratings are built from Las Palmas's last 11 games and Atletico Madrid's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Madrid Win
18%
5.50
27%
3.71
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.34
1.55
Atletico Madrid xG
5.50
18%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
21%
4.73
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
4%
26.01
25%
3.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 15.0 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.55 for Atletico Madrid, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 11 outings, Las Palmas have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 4W 2D 5L record — L-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Atletico Madrid's form line: 8W 2D 1L from 11 games, 2.36 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Atletico Madrid are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Las Palmas.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Las Palmas have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 5 home games (2W 2D 1L).
On the road, Atletico Madrid have gone 3W 1D 1L from their last 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Las Palmas are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Atletico Madrid are on 2.45 scored and 1.00 conceded. Atletico Madrid's attacking output running into Las Palmas's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Atletico Madrid in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
Las Palmas (Home) vs Atletico Madrid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Las Palmas
Blended
Atletico Madrid
Blended
❓ Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Form FAQs
What form are Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 4W 2D 5L in their last 11 games (1.27 PPG), while Atletico Madrid have gone 8W 2D 1L in their last 11 (2.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Atletico Madrid away?
Atletico Madrid's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.60 PPG; Atletico Madrid away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Las Palmas or Atletico Madrid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Las Palmas have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Atletico Madrid in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid, the earliest from November 2023. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 19 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Madrid won Atletico Madrid 5-0 Las Palmas on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Atletico Madrid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Atletico Madrid
Recent Meetings
❓ Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Las Palmas have won 2, Atletico Madrid have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 April 2025: Las Palmas 1-0 Atletico Madrid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Las Palmas's games tend to start slowly — only 20% have a goal by half-time.
Atletico Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Las Palmas) and 0% (Atletico Madrid) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Las Palmas) and 60% (Atletico Madrid).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Atletico Madrid in 80%; Las Palmas have failed to score in 40% of games; Atletico Madrid in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Atletico Madrid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Las Palmas vs Atletico Madrid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 0% of Atletico Madrid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Las Palmas's recent games and 60% of Atletico Madrid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Las Palmas and Atletico Madrid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 20% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 80% of Atletico Madrid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Atletico Madrid 2-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 0.79 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.55 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Las Palmas beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.68 / defence 0.89 against Atletico Madrid attack 1.42 / defence 0.76, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 18% | Draw 27% | Atletico Madrid 55%, with Atletico Madrid to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Las Palmas win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 27%, Atletico Madrid 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Atletico Madrid's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Atletico Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.27. Form was overturned, with Las Palmas winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Atletico Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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