Mallorca 0-0 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Getafe fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Getafe in La Liga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Mallorca (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 4W 5D 1L at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Getafe's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Getafe away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for Mallorca, 1.10 for Getafe — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Mallorca, 2 for Getafe and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 3–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 42% versus Getafe 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 33% | Getafe 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.53 xG and Getafe 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.845 / defence 0.901 | Getafe attack 1.128 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.194. Getafe bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Mallorca games / 48 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 26% | Getafe 30%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Getafe 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Mallorca 40% | Getafe 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 26% | Getafe 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Mallorca 1.53 / Getafe 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.845 / def 0.901 | Getafe attack 1.128 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Getafe xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Getafe kick off?
Mallorca vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Mallorca 0 - 0 Getafe.
Where is Mallorca vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Getafe part of?
Mallorca vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Getafe a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Mallorca and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
Record (4 meetings): Mallorca 1W | Draws 1 | Getafe 2W.
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Getafe (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.84) and Getafe's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Getafe's attack (1.13x) against Mallorca's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.26
26%
3.84
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Mallorca xG
Total xG
2.74
1.21
Getafe xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
13%
7.62
6%
15.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.21 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 48 outings, Mallorca have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 15W 13D 20L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe's form line: 12W 17D 19L from 48 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Mallorca against 1.10 for Getafe. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mallorca have posted 1.65 PPG from 23 outings (10W 8D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — Mallorca are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Getafe have gone 3W 8D 12L from 23 away games — 0.74 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mallorca are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.98 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 48 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Getafe in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 games (1.21 PPG), while Getafe have gone 12W 17D 19L in their last 48 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Getafe away?
Mallorca's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.65 PPG; Getafe away: 0.74 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Getafe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Getafe in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 13 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Getafe — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mallorca
2
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 4, Getafe have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when Getafe 3-1 Mallorca.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 39%, Getafe 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for Mallorca and 44% for Getafe.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 26% of games; Getafe in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Mallorca's recent matches and 48% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Mallorca's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Getafe tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Getafe in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Mallorca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 11, as Mallorca and Getafe drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.53 xG and Getafe 1.21 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Mallorca fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Getafe landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.84 / defence 0.90 against Getafe attack 1.13 / defence 1.21, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 26% | Getafe 30%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 33%, Getafe 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Getafe's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.21 PPG, Getafe 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Getafe (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.