Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Atletico Madrid at 40% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alaves vs Atletico Madrid encounter.

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Analysis

Atletico Madrid make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 32). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

Alaves (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Alaves have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.

Atletico Madrid's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Atletico Madrid away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Atletico Madrid are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Alaves, 2 for Atletico Madrid and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2023, ended Alaves 1–2 Atletico Madrid — a Atletico Madrid win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Alaves half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

Atletico Madrid half-time and goal-timing data (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 39% versus Atletico Madrid 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 26% | Atletico Madrid 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.97 xG and Atletico Madrid 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.713 / defence 1.032 | Atletico Madrid attack 1.046 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.090. Alaves's attack rating of 0.713 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Data: built from Alaves's last 31 games and Atletico Madrid's last 69.

Result probabilities: Alaves 29% | Draw 31% | Atletico Madrid 40%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.40 | Draw 3.26 | Atletico Madrid 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Atletico Madrid are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Madrid if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Alaves's last 10 home games and Atletico Madrid's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 40% (last 10 home games) | Atletico Madrid 50% (last 10 away games).

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