Suwon City FC 0-1 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Seoul (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Suwon City FC face FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Seoul make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1 (Championship Round - 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Seoul have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, FC Seoul have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, FC Seoul are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, FC Seoul have the stronger record — 5 wins to Suwon City FC's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2024, ended Suwon City FC 0–1 FC Seoul — a FC Seoul win.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC Seoul have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 4.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Suwon City FC — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC Seoul — key trading statistics (last 72 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 61% versus FC Seoul 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 57% | FC Seoul 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Suwon City FC surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while FC Seoul have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and FC Seoul 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.055 / defence 1.416 | FC Seoul attack 1.011 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Suwon City FC's defence rating of 1.416 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC Seoul's projected output up. Data: built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and FC Seoul's last 66.
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 3.12 | Draw 4.34 | FC Seoul 2.23. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.46 / 1.77) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Seoul are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Seoul if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.23 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Suwon City FC's last 10 home games and FC Seoul's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Suwon City FC 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Seoul 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Suwon City FC 1.46 / FC Seoul 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.055 / def 1.416 | FC Seoul attack 1.011 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.77
FC Seoul xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul FAQs
What time does Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Suwon City FC 0 - 1 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul is a K League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 2) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 32% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 45% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Suwon City FC and FC Seoul will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Suwon City FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against FC Seoul's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — FC Seoul's attack (1.01x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.42x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from Suwon City FC's last 66 games and FC Seoul's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
32%
3.12
23%
4.34
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
3.23
1.77
FC Seoul xG
3.12
32%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.77 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 23W 16D 33L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
FC Seoul's form line: 28W 21D 23L from 72 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.46 for FC Seoul. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 35 home games (12W 8D 15L).
On the road, FC Seoul have gone 10W 13D 12L from their last 35 away games — 1.23 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
Suwon City FC (Home) vs FC Seoul (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Suwon City FC
Current Season
FC Seoul
Current Season
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Form FAQs
What form are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 23W 16D 33L in their last 72 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 28W 21D 23L in their last 72 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or FC Seoul away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.26 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to July 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 5 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Seoul won FC Seoul 7-2 Suwon City FC on 12 Jul 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 0W 3D 3L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Seoul — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Suwon City FC
4
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Suwon City FC have won 0, FC Seoul have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 October 2025: Suwon City FC 1-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, FC Seoul 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Suwon City FC) and 49% (FC Seoul).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Suwon City FC vs FC Seoul Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 63% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 49% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and FC Seoul matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 63% of FC Seoul's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Seoul edge out Suwon City FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon City FC 0-1 at Suwon Sports Complex, Championship Round - 2, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.46 xG and FC Seoul 1.77 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Suwon City FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.05 / defence 1.42 against FC Seoul attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 32% | Draw 23% | FC Seoul 45%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 57%, FC Seoul 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Seoul's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.18 PPG, FC Seoul 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Seoul win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. FC Seoul (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.