Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Incheon United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Incheon United in K League 1, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Daegu FC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Daegu FC have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Incheon United's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Incheon United (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Daegu FC lead 1W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Incheon United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 52% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 43% | Incheon United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.43 xG and Incheon United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.029 | Incheon United attack 0.877 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: 66 Daegu FC games / 66 Incheon United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 44% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Incheon United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Incheon United lead the H2H ledger, but Daegu FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Daegu FC 60% | Incheon United 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Incheon United | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: DGB Daegu Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 44% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Daegu FC 1.43 / Incheon United 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 1.068 / def 1.029 | Incheon United attack 0.877 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Incheon United xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Incheon United kick off?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Daegu FC 1 - 3 Incheon United.
Where is Daegu FC vs Incheon United being played?
The match is being played at DGB Daegu Bank Park.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Incheon United part of?
Daegu FC vs Incheon United is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 44% chance of winning, Incheon United a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Daegu FC and Incheon United will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Incheon United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Record (9 meetings): Daegu FC 1W | Draws 5 | Incheon United 3W.
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in?
Daegu FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Incheon United (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Daegu FC's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Incheon United's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Incheon United's attack (0.88x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.80
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.55
1.11
Incheon United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
7%
14.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.7 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.5 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Incheon United expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.11 for Incheon United, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Incheon United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Daegu FC come into this having played 75 games, going 22W 27D 26L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-L.
On the other side, Incheon United sit at 1.23 PPG from 75 outings (22W 26D 27L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Daegu FC against 1.23 for Incheon United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Daegu FC's home form reads 12W 17D 8L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Incheon United have taken 1.32 points per game from 37 outings (12W 13D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Daegu FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Incheon United are on 1.08 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 75 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Current Season
Incheon United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Daegu FC and Incheon United in coming into this match?
Daegu FC have gone 22W 27D 26L in their last 75 games (1.24 PPG), while Incheon United have gone 22W 26D 27L in their last 75 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daegu FC at home or Incheon United away?
Daegu FC's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daegu FC at home: 1.43 PPG; Incheon United away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Daegu FC or Incheon United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Daegu FC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Incheon United in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Incheon United go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Incheon United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Daegu FC
5
Draws
4
Incheon United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 1, Incheon United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Incheon United last play each other?
They last met on 24 November 2024, when Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Incheon United?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daegu FC 54%, Incheon United 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Daegu FC) and 43% (Incheon United).
On the defensive side: Daegu FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Incheon United in 35%; Incheon United in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Incheon United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Daegu FC play Incheon United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Daegu FC's recent matches and 46% of Incheon United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Daegu FC vs Incheon United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Daegu FC's recent games and 43% of Incheon United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daegu FC and Incheon United tend to score early?
Daegu FC have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Incheon United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Incheon United cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Daegu FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Incheon United beat Daegu FC 1-3 at DGB Daegu Bank Park, Relegation Round - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 1.43 xG and Incheon United 1.11 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Incheon United outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.03 against Incheon United attack 0.88 / defence 0.92, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 44% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 29%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Incheon United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daegu FC 43%, Incheon United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daegu FC's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Incheon United's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Daegu FC 1.24 PPG, Incheon United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Incheon United win broke the near-deadlock. Daegu FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Incheon United (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.