Daegu FC 1-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Daegu FC at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Daegu FC vs Incheon United encounter.

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Full Analysis

DGB Daegu Bank Park plays host to Daegu FC versus Incheon United in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 5). Kick-off: Sunday 24 November 2024 at 05:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Daegu FC have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Daegu FC have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Incheon United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Incheon United's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form ledger tips toward Daegu FC. A 0.50 PPG lead over Incheon United (1.30 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 9 H2H matches in our data, Incheon United edge it 3 wins to 1, with 5 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 9 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Aug 2024, ended Daegu FC 1–2 Incheon United — a Incheon United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Daegu FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daegu FC 52% versus Incheon United 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daegu FC 43% | Incheon United 39%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Daegu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 1.43 xG and Incheon United 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 1.068 / defence 1.029 | Incheon United attack 0.877 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Daegu FC's last 66 games and Incheon United's last 66.

Result probabilities: Daegu FC 44% | Draw 26% | Incheon United 29%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 2.25 | Draw 3.80 | Incheon United 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 9 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Daegu FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 30% (last 10 away games).

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