Asan Mugunghwa 4-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Asan Mugunghwa face Daegu FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Daegu FC make the trip to Cheonan Baekseok Stadium to face Asan Mugunghwa in K League 1 (Relegation Round). The match kicks off on Thursday 28 November 2024 at 00:00 UK time.
Form
Daegu FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Daegu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 1.016 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Asan Mugunghwa's last 0 games and Daegu FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45%. Fair-value odds: Asan Mugunghwa 3.51 | Draw 3.80 | Daegu FC 2.21. Daegu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Daegu FC at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daegu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round | Venue: Cheonan Baekseok Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 November 2024 at 00:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 / Daegu FC 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Daegu FC attack 1.016 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Daegu FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Asan Mugunghwa xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Daegu FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC FAQs
What time does Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC kick off?
Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC kicked off at 00:00 UK time on Thursday 28 November 2024 at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium.
What was the final score in Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Asan Mugunghwa 4 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium.
What competition is Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC part of?
Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Asan Mugunghwa a 28% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 45% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Daegu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Asan Mugunghwa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Daegu FC's attack (1.02x) against Asan Mugunghwa's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Asan Mugunghwa's last 0 games and Daegu FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daegu FC Win
28%
3.51
26%
3.80
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Asan Mugunghwa xG
Total xG
2.53
1.44
Daegu FC xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
14.82
15%
6.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Asan Mugunghwa and 1.44 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Asan Mugunghwa
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Asan Mugunghwa (Home) vs Daegu FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Asan Mugunghwa
Pre-Season
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC, the earliest from November 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 1 December 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Asan Mugunghwa
0
Draws
1
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Asan Mugunghwa vs Daegu FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Asan Mugunghwa have won 1, Daegu FC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Asan Mugunghwa and Daegu FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 December 2024: Daegu FC 3-1 Asan Mugunghwa.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Asan Mugunghwa home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Asan Mugunghwa defy the odds to beat Daegu FC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Asan Mugunghwa beat Daegu FC 4-3 at Cheonan Baekseok Stadium, Relegation Round, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Asan Mugunghwa 1.09 xG and Daegu FC 1.44 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Asan Mugunghwa beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 1.44 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Asan Mugunghwa attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Daegu FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 0/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Asan Mugunghwa 28% | Draw 26% | Daegu FC 45%, with Daegu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Asan Mugunghwa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.