Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Daegu FC at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jeonbuk Motors face Daegu FC.

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Match Analysis

Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 4). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 07:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Jeonbuk Motors — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Daegu FC have recorded 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Daegu FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.60 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 3 for Daegu FC and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Jeonbuk Motors 3–4 Daegu FC — a Daegu FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Daegu FC trading profile (last 74 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 47% versus Daegu FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 43% | Daegu FC 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Jeonbuk Motors surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Daegu FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.19 xG and Daegu FC 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.944 / defence 1.034 | Daegu FC attack 1.017 / defence 0.865. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.233. Data: built from Jeonbuk Motors's last 66 games and Daegu FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 34% | Draw 27% | Daegu FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.95 | Draw 3.70 | Daegu FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Daegu FC as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daegu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Jeonbuk Motors's last 10 home games and Daegu FC's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeonbuk Motors 50% (last 10 home games) | Daegu FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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