Al Taawon 4-0 Al-Hazm – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Al Taawon at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Taawon vs Al-Hazm encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

Al Taawon welcome Al-Hazm to Al Taawon Club Stadium in Pro League (matchday 25). Kick-off is Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Al Taawon stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Al Taawon have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Hazm — last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Al-Hazm's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 6D 4L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Taawon are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Al Taawon, 0 for Al-Hazm and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 29 Sep 2023, ended Al Taawon 3–1 Al-Hazm — a Al Taawon win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Al Taawon trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Al-Hazm trading profile (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Taawon 62% and Al-Hazm 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Taawon 50% | Al-Hazm 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Taawon 1.79 xG and Al-Hazm 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Taawon attack 1.020 / defence 0.968 | Al-Hazm attack 0.851 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Al-Hazm's defence rating of 1.254 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Al Taawon's projected output up. Data: built from Al Taawon's last 54 games and Al-Hazm's last 24.

Result probabilities: Al Taawon 50% | Draw 25% | Al-Hazm 25%. Fair-value odds: Al Taawon 2.01 | Draw 3.96 | Al-Hazm 4.01. Al Taawon hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Taawon as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Taawon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Al Taawon's last 10 home games and Al-Hazm's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Al Taawon 70% (last 10 home games) | Al-Hazm 80% (last 10 away games).

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