Al-Hazm 0-3 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Shabab at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 24 as Al-Hazm welcome Al Shabab to Ar-Rass Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 14 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's home record at Ar-Rass Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 3.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Shabab have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Shabab have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Al-Hazm) versus 1.00 (Al Shabab). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Al Shabab have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Al-Hazm.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2023, ended 1–4 with Al Shabab winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al Shabab have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Al-Hazm trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Al Shabab trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hazm 70% and Al Shabab 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hazm 56% | Al Shabab 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al Shabab 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hazm attack 0.794 / defence 1.507 | Al Shabab attack 0.696 / defence 0.812. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.472. Al-Hazm's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Al-Hazm games / 53 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hazm 4.55 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 1.96. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hazm 70% | Al Shabab 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Ar-Rass Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Al-Hazm 0.93 / Al Shabab 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hazm attack 0.794 / def 1.507 | Al Shabab attack 0.696 / def 0.812 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Al Shabab xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab kicked off at 19:00 on Thursday 14 March 2024 at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Al-Hazm 0 - 3 Al Shabab.
Where is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Ar-Rass Stadium.
What competition is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab part of?
Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hazm a 22% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 51% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Al-Hazm and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Record (3 meetings): Al-Hazm 0W | Draws 0 | Al Shabab 3W.
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in?
Al-Hazm (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Hazm's attack rating (0.79) and Al Shabab's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al-Hazm's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
22%
4.52
27%
3.73
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Al-Hazm xG
Total xG
2.47
1.54
Al Shabab xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
5%
21.19
20%
4.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.0 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.6 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Al-Hazm and 1.54 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Al-Hazm have picked up 0.65 PPG on a 2W 9D 12L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab's form line: 6W 7D 10L from 23 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al Shabab are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hazm have posted 0.73 PPG from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L).
On the road, Al Shabab have gone 2W 4D 5L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hazm are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.04 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Hazm have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hazm
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hazm and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al-Hazm have gone 2W 9D 12L in their last 23 games (0.65 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 6W 7D 10L in their last 23 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hazm at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hazm at home: 0.73 PPG; Al Shabab away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Al-Hazm or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hazm have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 29 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al Shabab have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Jan 2026, when Al Shabab won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hazm's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al-Hazm
0
Draws
6
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hazm have won 0, Al Shabab have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hazm and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-4 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hazm and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Al Shabab see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hazm 64%, Al Shabab 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al-Hazm) and 36% (Al Shabab).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab in 36%; Al-Hazm have failed to score in 27% of games; Al Shabab in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hazm home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hazm play Al Shabab?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Al-Hazm's recent matches and 36% of Al Shabab's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Hazm vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al-Hazm's recent games and 36% of Al Shabab's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Hazm and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al-Hazm have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al Shabab run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Al-Hazm.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Shabab beat Al-Hazm 0-3 at Ar-Rass Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hazm 0.93 xG and Al Shabab 1.54 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Al-Hazm fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Al Shabab outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hazm attack 0.79 / defence 1.51 against Al Shabab attack 0.70 / defence 0.81, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hazm 22% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 51%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hazm 56%, Al Shabab 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hazm's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al Shabab's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.09 PPG against 0.65. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hazm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Al Shabab (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.