Al-Ittihad FC 3-1 Al-Fayha – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium plays host to Al-Ittihad FC versus Al-Fayha in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 29 March 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al-Ittihad FC have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Ittihad FC at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Fayha's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Al-Ittihad FC's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al-Ittihad FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Fayha in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Al-Ittihad FC 3W, Al-Fayha 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Al-Ittihad FC — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al-Fayha — key trading statistics (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ittihad FC 44% versus Al-Fayha 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ittihad FC 61% | Al-Fayha 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ittihad FC 1.90 xG and Al-Fayha 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / defence 1.110 | Al-Fayha attack 1.122 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.479. Data: 54 Al-Ittihad FC games / 54 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 37%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ittihad FC 2.50 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Fayha 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.74. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.74 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.90 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ittihad FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ittihad FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ittihad FC 80% | Al-Fayha 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 29 Mar 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Al-Ittihad FC 1.90 / Al-Fayha 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.196 / def 1.110 | Al-Fayha attack 1.122 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Al-Ittihad FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Al-Fayha xG
72%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 March 2024 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC 3 - 1 Al-Fayha.
Where is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium.
What competition is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ittihad FC a 40% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Ittihad FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Ittihad FC 3W | Draws 1 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Ittihad FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Al-Ittihad FC's attack rating (1.20) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Al-Fayha's attack (1.12x) against Al-Ittihad FC's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.84.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ittihad FC Win
40%
2.52
23%
4.34
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Al-Ittihad FC xG
Total xG
3.74
1.84
Al-Fayha xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
16%
6.31
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
6%
15.92
6%
17.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Al-Ittihad FC and 1.84 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Ittihad FC's recent record stands at 35W 10D 9L from 54 games, a 2.13 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Al-Ittihad FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 16W 17D 21L across 54 games — 1.20 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ittihad FC by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Al-Ittihad FC have managed 19W 3D 5L from 27 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 10W 7D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ittihad FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Ittihad FC are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.15 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ittihad FC
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Ittihad FC have gone 35W 10D 9L in their last 54 games (2.13 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 16W 17D 21L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ittihad FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Ittihad FC's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ittihad FC at home: 2.22 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Al-Ittihad FC or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ittihad FC have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Ittihad FC won 3-0 on 19 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Ittihad FC have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Al-Ittihad FC
3
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Ittihad FC have won 6, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 Al-Fayha.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Ittihad FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Ittihad FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ittihad FC 41%, Al-Fayha 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Al-Ittihad FC) and 59% (Al-Fayha). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ittihad FC keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ittihad FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ittihad FC play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Al-Ittihad FC's recent matches and 67% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Ittihad FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al-Ittihad FC's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Ittihad FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Ittihad FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Ittihad FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ittihad FC beat Al-Fayha 3-1 at Prince Abdullah al-Faisal Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Ittihad FC 1.90 xG and Al-Fayha 1.84 xG, a combined 3.74. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ittihad FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against Al-Fayha attack 1.12 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Ittihad FC 40% | Draw 23% | Al-Fayha 37%, with Al-Ittihad FC to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Ittihad FC 61%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Al-Fayha's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Ittihad FC arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.07 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.