Al Shabab 0-1 Al-Ettifaq – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Al Shabab face Al-Ettifaq.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Al-Shabab Club Stadium plays host to Al Shabab versus Al-Ettifaq in Pro League (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Al Shabab have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Al Shabab's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Al-Ettifaq's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Al-Ettifaq have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Al-Ettifaq edge it 2 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 May 2024, ended Al Shabab 0–1 Al-Ettifaq — a Al-Ettifaq win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Al Shabab goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Al-Ettifaq goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 34 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Shabab 47% versus Al-Ettifaq 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Shabab 47% | Al-Ettifaq 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Shabab attack 1.144 / defence 1.039 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.061 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.215. Data: built from Al Shabab's last 34 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 34. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Shabab 2.48 | Draw 3.86 | Al-Ettifaq 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al Shabab if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al Shabab's last 10 home games and Al-Ettifaq's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Al Shabab 50% (last 10 home games) | Al-Ettifaq 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
The Poisson model's sample (Al Shabab 34 games, Al-Ettifaq 34) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq | Competition: Pro League, matchday 1 | Venue: Al-Shabab Club Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 24 August 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Al Shabab 1.48 / Al-Ettifaq 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Al Shabab attack 1.144 / def 1.039 | Al-Ettifaq attack 1.061 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq FAQs
What time does Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kick off?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Al Shabab 0 - 1 Al-Ettifaq.
Where is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq being played?
The match is being played at Al-Shabab Club Stadium.
What competition is Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq part of?
Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq is a Pro League fixture (matchday 1) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our statistical model gives Al Shabab a 40% chance of winning, Al-Ettifaq a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al Shabab's attack at 1.14x the league average against Al-Ettifaq's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ettifaq's attack (1.06x) against Al Shabab's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Al Shabab's last 34 games and Al-Ettifaq's last 34, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.86
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Al Shabab xG
Total xG
2.82
1.34
Al-Ettifaq xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
8%
13.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Al Shabab and 1.34 for Al-Ettifaq, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Shabab come into this having played 34 games, going 12W 8D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Al-Ettifaq sit at 1.41 PPG from 34 outings (12W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Al Shabab against 1.41 for Al-Ettifaq. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Shabab's home form reads 8W 3D 6L across their last 17 home games, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ettifaq have taken 1.35 points per game from their last 17 away games (6W 5D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Shabab are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Al-Ettifaq are on 1.26 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Al-Ettifaq in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
Al Shabab (Home) vs Al-Ettifaq (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al Shabab
Pre-Season
Al-Ettifaq
Pre-Season
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Form FAQs
What form are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq in coming into this match?
Al Shabab have gone 12W 8D 14L in their last 34 games (1.29 PPG), while Al-Ettifaq have gone 12W 12D 10L in their last 34 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Shabab at home or Al-Ettifaq away?
Al Shabab's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Shabab at home: 1.59 PPG; Al-Ettifaq away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Al Shabab or Al-Ettifaq been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al Shabab have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Al-Ettifaq in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al Shabab won Al Shabab 3-0 Al-Ettifaq on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Shabab have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Al-Ettifaq — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Al Shabab
5
Draws
4
Al-Ettifaq
Recent Meetings
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Al Shabab have won 1, Al-Ettifaq have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Al-Ettifaq 1-1 Al Shabab.
Who has won more matches between Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq?
Al-Ettifaq have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Al-Ettifaq see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Shabab 59%, Al-Ettifaq 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Al Shabab) and 29% (Al-Ettifaq).
On the defensive side: Al Shabab keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Al-Ettifaq in 41%; Al-Ettifaq in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Shabab home games / Al-Ettifaq away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al Shabab vs Al-Ettifaq Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Al Shabab's recent games and 29% of Al-Ettifaq's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Shabab and Al-Ettifaq matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Al Shabab's recent matches and 53% of Al-Ettifaq's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al-Ettifaq defy the odds to beat Al Shabab 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Ettifaq beat Al Shabab 0-1 at Al-Shabab Club Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Shabab 1.48 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.34 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Shabab fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Shabab attack 1.14 / defence 1.04 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.06 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Shabab 40% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 34%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Al-Ettifaq win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Shabab 47%, Al-Ettifaq 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Shabab's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Shabab 1.29 PPG, Al-Ettifaq 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Ettifaq win broke the near-deadlock. Al Shabab (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.