Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Saud University Stadium to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr at King Saud University Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 8 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 53% versus Al-Fayha 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 69% | Al-Fayha 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.11 xG and Al-Fayha 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / defence 0.833 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.475. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Al-Nassr games / 46 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 13%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Al-Fayha 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Fayha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 63% | Draw 24% | Al-Fayha 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 54% | xG Al-Nassr 2.11 / Al-Fayha 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / def 0.833 | Al-Fayha attack 0.737 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.475 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
54%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 63% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Nassr 8W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.24
13%
7.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
3.02
0.91
Al-Fayha xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
7.55
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
12%
8.24
Win to Nil
26%
3.92
2%
62.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.91 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 45 games, going 37W 3D 5L for 2.53 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.02 PPG from 45 outings (11W 13D 21L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.51 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 20W 1D 1L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.64 points per game from 22 outings (3W 5D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.22 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Blended
Al-Fayha
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 37W 3D 5L in their last 45 games (2.53 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.77 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.64 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 54%, Al-Fayha 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Al-Nassr and 59% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Al-Nassr's recent matches and 50% of Al-Fayha's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Al-Nassr's matches and 59% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.