Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 33 sees Al-Fayha travel to King Saud University Stadium to take on Al-Nassr. The game is scheduled for Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Nassr stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Al-Nassr have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Nassr at King Saud University Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Saud University Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Al-Nassr are significantly better at King Saud University Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Al-Fayha — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Al-Nassr are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.40 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 8 wins from 10 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Fayha, with 2 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Al-Nassr winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Al-Nassr trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Fayha trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Nassr 52% versus Al-Fayha 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 70% | Al-Fayha 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 1.88 xG and Al-Fayha 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.318 / defence 0.806 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.286. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.318 — their λ of 1.88 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 40 Al-Nassr games / 40 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.69 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Fayha 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (59%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Nassr at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 50% | Al-Fayha 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: King Saud University Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 24 May 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Nassr 1.88 / Al-Fayha 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Nassr attack 1.318 / def 0.806 | Al-Fayha attack 0.834 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Al-Nassr xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 24 May 2027 at King Saud University Stadium.
Where is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at King Saud University Stadium.
What competition is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Nassr a 59% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 14% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Record (10 meetings): Al-Nassr 8W | Draws 2 | Al-Fayha 0W.
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Al-Nassr's attacking strength (1.32x league average) is weighed against Al-Fayha's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.88. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Nassr's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
59%
1.70
27%
3.74
14%
6.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Al-Nassr xG
Total xG
2.75
0.86
Al-Fayha xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
6.98
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
25%
4.03
2%
45.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Al-Nassr and 0.86 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Al-Nassr come into this having played 40 games, going 33W 2D 5L for 2.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Al-Nassr, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Fayha sit at 1.08 PPG from 40 outings (11W 10D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.44 PPG clear of Al-Fayha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Al-Nassr's home form reads 18W 1D 1L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Fayha have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (4W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Nassr are averaging 2.65 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.20 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Nassr
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Nassr have gone 33W 2D 5L in their last 40 games (2.52 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Nassr at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Nassr's home record (2.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Nassr at home: 2.75 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Al-Nassr or Al-Fayha been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Nassr have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Fayha in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Nassr's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Nassr
2
Draws
0
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Nassr have won 8, Al-Fayha have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Nassr 55%, Al-Fayha 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Nassr and 65% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Nassr keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Nassr home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Nassr play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Al-Nassr's games and 55% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Nassr vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Nassr's matches and 65% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Nassr and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Nassr have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.