Al Khaleej Saihat 1-1 Al Taawon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al Taawon at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 26 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Al Khaleej Saihat have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Khaleej Saihat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Khaleej Saihat at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Taawon (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Taawon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Taawon have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Al Taawon are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al Khaleej Saihat have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Al Taawon in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al Khaleej Saihat, 1 for Al Taawon and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2023, ended 0–2 with Al Taawon winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Al Khaleej Saihat half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Al Taawon half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Khaleej Saihat 40% versus Al Taawon 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Khaleej Saihat 45% | Al Taawon 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Khaleej Saihat 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.663 / defence 1.138 | Al Taawon attack 1.086 / defence 0.824. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.396. Al Khaleej Saihat's attack strength of 0.663 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Al Khaleej Saihat games / 40 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Khaleej Saihat 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | Al Taawon 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al Taawon (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Taawon are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Al Khaleej Saihat 70% | Al Taawon 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Al Khaleej Saihat 0.83 / Al Taawon 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.663 / def 1.138 | Al Taawon attack 1.086 / def 0.824 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.396 • Poisson stance: Al Taawon (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Al Taawon xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon kicked off at 16:00 on Thursday 26 October 2023 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon?
Al Khaleej Saihat 1 - 1 Al Taawon.
Where is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium.
What competition is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon part of?
Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al Khaleej Saihat a 18% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 59% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Al Taawon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon?
Record (2 meetings): Al Khaleej Saihat 1W | Draws 0 | Al Taawon 1W.
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon in?
Al Khaleej Saihat (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Khaleej Saihat's attack at 0.66x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Taawon's attack (1.09x) against Al Khaleej Saihat's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.0%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Taawon Win
18%
5.65
24%
4.25
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Al Khaleej Saihat xG
Total xG
2.55
1.73
Al Taawon xG
5.65
18%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
18%
5.62
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
31.76
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 13.4 | 11.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Al Khaleej Saihat and 1.73 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Khaleej Saihat's recent record stands at 11W 7D 22L from 40 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Al Khaleej Saihat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 23W 9D 8L across 40 games — 1.95 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Al Taawon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al Taawon by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Khaleej Saihat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Khaleej Saihat have managed 6W 4D 10L from 20 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 12W 4D 4L across 20 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Taawon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Khaleej Saihat are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.65 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 65%.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Khaleej Saihat
Blended
Al Taawon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 11W 7D 22L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 23W 9D 8L in their last 40 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Khaleej Saihat at home or Al Taawon away?
Al Taawon's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Khaleej Saihat at home: 1.10 PPG; Al Taawon away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Khaleej Saihat have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Al Taawon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Al Khaleej Saihat
3
Draws
4
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al Khaleej Saihat have won 1, Al Taawon have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Al Taawon 1-1 Al Khaleej Saihat.
Who has won more matches between Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon?
Al Taawon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Khaleej Saihat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Khaleej Saihat 50%, Al Taawon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Al Khaleej Saihat) and 50% (Al Taawon).
On the defensive side: Al Taawon in 35%; Al Khaleej Saihat have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Khaleej Saihat home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Khaleej Saihat play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al Khaleej Saihat's games and 60% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Khaleej Saihat vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Al Khaleej Saihat's recent games and 50% of Al Taawon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al Khaleej Saihat have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 11, as Al Khaleej Saihat and Al Taawon drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Khaleej Saihat 0.83 xG and Al Taawon 1.73 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.66 / defence 1.14 against Al Taawon attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Khaleej Saihat 18% | Draw 24% | Al Taawon 59%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Khaleej Saihat 45%, Al Taawon 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Al Taawon's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.