Abha 2-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Abha at 39%, yet in-form Al Shabab provide a compelling counter-argument — this Abha vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Abha host Al Shabab at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium in Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Abha — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Abha's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Abha are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Al Shabab have recorded 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Al Shabab's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Al Shabab — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Abha's games and 60% of Al Shabab's (from Abha's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Abha, 2 for Al Shabab and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2023, ended Abha 0–2 Al Shabab — a Al Shabab win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Abha in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Abha 55% versus Al Shabab 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Abha 65% | Al Shabab 62%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Abha surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Al Shabab have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Abha 1.45 xG and Al Shabab 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Abha attack 0.814 / defence 1.078 | Al Shabab attack 0.898 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.400. Data: built from Abha's last 40 games and Al Shabab's last 40.
Result probabilities: Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35%. Fair-value odds: Abha 2.54 | Draw 3.96 | Al Shabab 2.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Abha are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Shabab (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Abha offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Abha's last 10 home games and Al Shabab's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Abha 60% (last 10 home games) | Al Shabab 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Abha vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Abha 1.45 / Al Shabab 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Abha attack 0.814 / def 1.078 | Al Shabab attack 0.898 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Abha (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Abha xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Abha vs Al Shabab FAQs
What time does Abha vs Al Shabab kick off?
Abha vs Al Shabab kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What was the final score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Abha 2 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Abha vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium.
What competition is Abha vs Al Shabab part of?
Abha vs Al Shabab is a Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Abha a 39% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Abha the favourite.
Will both teams score in Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Abha and Al Shabab will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Abha vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Abha's attack at 0.81x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Abha's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Abha's last 40 games and Al Shabab's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Abha Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.96
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Abha xG
Total xG
2.80
1.35
Al Shabab xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Abha vs Al Shabab Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Abha and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Abha and 1.35 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Abha vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Abha come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 4D 24L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.70 PPG from 40 outings (20W 8D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Abha — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Abha's home form reads 9W 3D 8L across their last 20 home games, a 1.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Abha are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.40 points per game from their last 20 away games (8W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Abha are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Abha
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
Abha (Home) vs Al Shabab (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Abha
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Abha vs Al Shabab Form FAQs
What form are Abha and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Abha have gone 12W 4D 24L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Abha at home or Al Shabab away?
Abha's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Abha at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Abha or Al Shabab been keeping clean sheets recently?
Abha have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Al Shabab in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Apr 2024, when Al Shabab won Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Abha's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Abha
1
Draws
3
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Abha vs Al Shabab H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Abha and Al Shabab?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Abha have won 2, Al Shabab have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Abha and Al Shabab last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2024: Al Shabab 5-0 Abha.
Who has won more matches between Abha and Al Shabab?
Al Shabab have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Abha see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Abha at 65%, Al Shabab at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Abha and 70% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Abha home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Abha vs Al Shabab Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Abha and Al Shabab matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Abha's games and 70% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Abha and Al Shabab matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Abha's matches and 70% of Al Shabab's.
Do Abha and Al Shabab matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Abha's recent matches and 90% of Al Shabab's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Abha edge out Al Shabab 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Abha beat Al Shabab 2-1 at Prince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Abha 1.45 xG and Al Shabab 1.35 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Abha attack 0.81 / defence 1.08 against Al Shabab attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Abha 39% | Draw 25% | Al Shabab 35%, with Abha to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Abha 65%, Al Shabab 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Abha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Abha winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.