Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Fayha face Al-Nassr.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 11 as Al-Fayha welcome Al-Nassr to King Fahd International Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Fayha's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at King Fahd International Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Fahd International Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Al-Nassr — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Nassr's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Al-Nassr's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Fayha's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Al-Fayha, 2 for Al-Nassr and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Al-Fayha trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Nassr trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Fayha 50% versus Al-Nassr 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Fayha 45% | Al-Nassr 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Fayha 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Fayha attack 0.675 / defence 0.710 | Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.535 / away 1.400. Al-Fayha's attack strength of 0.675 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Fayha's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Al-Fayha games / 40 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52%. Fair-value odds: Al-Fayha 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Al-Nassr 1.92. Al-Nassr hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Nassr offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.20 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al-Fayha 20% | Al-Nassr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: King Fahd International Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Al-Fayha 0.79 / Al-Nassr 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Fayha attack 0.675 / def 0.710 | Al-Nassr attack 1.422 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.535 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at King Fahd International Stadium.
What was the final score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Al-Fayha 1 - 3 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at King Fahd International Stadium.
What competition is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al-Fayha a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Fayha 0W | Draws 2 | Al-Nassr 2W.
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in?
Al-Fayha (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Al-Nassr (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Fayha's attack at 0.68x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Nassr's attack versus Al-Fayha's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.78
27%
3.67
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Al-Fayha xG
Total xG
2.20
1.41
Al-Nassr xG
4.78
21%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.6 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Al-Fayha and 1.41 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Al-Fayha have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 11W 14D 15L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Fayha is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Nassr's form line: 27W 8D 5L from 40 games, 2.22 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. The sample for Al-Nassr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Nassr are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fayha.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Fayha have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (5W 8D 7L).
On the road, Al-Nassr have gone 12W 4D 4L from 20 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Fayha are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.28 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Nassr in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Fayha
Blended
Al-Nassr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al-Fayha have gone 11W 14D 15L in their last 40 games (1.18 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 27W 8D 5L in their last 40 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Fayha at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Fayha at home: 1.15 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Al-Fayha or Al-Nassr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Fayha have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Al-Nassr in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Nassr have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Al-Nassr won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Fayha's record when hosting Al-Nassr specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Al-Fayha
2
Draws
8
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Fayha have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-3 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Al-Fayha 35% BTTS, Al-Nassr 35%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Al-Fayha) and 60% (Al-Nassr).
On the defensive side: Al-Fayha keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Al-Nassr in 50%; Al-Fayha have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Fayha home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Fayha play Al-Nassr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Al-Fayha's recent matches and 35% of Al-Nassr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Al-Fayha vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Al-Fayha's recent games and 60% of Al-Nassr's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al-Fayha and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al-Fayha have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al-Fayha.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al-Fayha 1-3 at King Fahd International Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Fayha 0.79 xG and Al-Nassr 1.41 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Nassr outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Fayha attack 0.68 / defence 0.71 against Al-Nassr attack 1.42 / defence 0.76, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Fayha 21% | Draw 27% | Al-Nassr 52%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Fayha 45%, Al-Nassr 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Fayha's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.