Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Hazm.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 10 as Al-Hilal Saudi FC welcome Al-Hazm to Kingdom Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 19 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kingdom Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hazm stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hazm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hazm's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Hilal Saudi FC: 5 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Al-Hazm, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 3–0 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Al-Hazm in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50% versus Al-Hazm 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 62% | Al-Hazm 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.09 xG and Al-Hazm 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.394 / defence 0.983 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.388. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.394 — their λ of 2.09 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 43 Al-Hazm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 19%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Hazm 5.26. Al-Hilal Saudi FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.32 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Hilal Saudi FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.32 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 40% | Al-Hazm 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al-Hazm 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.09 / Al-Hazm 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.394 / def 0.983 | Al-Hazm attack 0.900 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.388 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
65%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Kingdom Arena.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 54% chance of winning, Al-Hazm a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 5W | Draws 1 | Al-Hazm 0W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Hazm (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attack rating (1.39) and Al-Hazm's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Hazm's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.78
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.32
1.23
Al-Hazm xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
12%
8.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.28
2%
42.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.23 for Al-Hazm, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.50 PPG on a 32W 9D 1L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Hazm's form line: 13W 11D 18L from 42 games, 1.19 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Hazm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.31 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Hazm.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.45 PPG from 20 outings (15W 4D 1L).
On the road, Al-Hazm have gone 4W 7D 9L from 20 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.64 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Al-Hazm are on 1.12 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Hazm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 32W 9D 1L in their last 42 games (2.50 PPG), while Al-Hazm have gone 13W 11D 18L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Hazm away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.45 PPG; Al-Hazm away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Hazm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Al-Hazm in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Nov 2023, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 0-9 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Hazm specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
1
Draws
0
Al-Hazm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
From 6 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 5, Al-Hazm have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Al-Hazm 0-3 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time.
Al-Hazm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 50%, Al-Hazm 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 60% for Al-Hazm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Al-Hazm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Hazm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Hazm?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 60% of Al-Hazm's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Hazm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 60% of Al-Hazm's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Hazm tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Al-Hazm in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.