Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9-0 Al-Fateh – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Hilal Saudi FC face Al-Fateh.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al-Hilal Saudi FC host Al-Fateh at Kingdom Arena in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 16 January 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Hilal Saudi FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC at Kingdom Arena this season: 10W 0D 0L from 10 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Al-Hilal Saudi FC are significantly better at Kingdom Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fateh have recorded 0W 3D 7L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fateh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Fateh have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the edge — a 2.20 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Hilal Saudi FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fateh in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Al-Hilal Saudi FC, 2 for Al-Fateh and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 3–1 with Al-Hilal Saudi FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Hilal Saudi FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al-Fateh in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Hilal Saudi FC 58% and Al-Fateh 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73% | Al-Fateh 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.521 / defence 0.864 | Al-Fateh attack 0.796 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.470. Al-Hilal Saudi FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.521 — their λ of 2.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Al-Hilal Saudi FC games / 48 Al-Fateh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14%. Fair-value odds: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1.45 | Draw 5.88 | Al-Fateh 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.46 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 70% | Al-Fateh 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Kingdom Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 16 Jan 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 58% | xG Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 / Al-Fateh 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.521 / def 0.864 | Al-Fateh attack 0.796 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.470 • Poisson stance: Al-Hilal Saudi FC (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
58%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kick off?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh kicked off at 15:05 on Thursday 16 January 2025 at Kingdom Arena.
What was the final score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC 9 - 0 Al-Fateh.
Where is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh being played?
The match is being played at Kingdom Arena.
What competition is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh part of?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our statistical model gives Al-Hilal Saudi FC a 69% chance of winning, Al-Fateh a 14% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Al-Hilal Saudi FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Record (6 meetings): Al-Hilal Saudi FC 4W | Draws 0 | Al-Fateh 2W.
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Al-Fateh (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's attacking strength (1.52x league average) is weighed against Al-Fateh's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.45. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fateh's attack versus Al-Hilal Saudi FC's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Hilal Saudi FC Win
69%
1.45
17%
5.79
14%
7.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.45
Al-Hilal Saudi FC xG
Total xG
3.46
1.01
Al-Fateh xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
7.29
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
9%
11.62
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
1%
84.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh expected to score?
The model projects 2.45 expected goals for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 1.01 for Al-Fateh, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have picked up 2.77 PPG on a 43W 4D 1L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Al-Hilal Saudi FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Fateh's form line: 13W 12D 23L from 48 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Al-Fateh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Al-Hilal Saudi FC are the form team by 1.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al-Fateh.
Venue Form
On home soil, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have posted 2.91 PPG from 23 outings (22W 1D 0L).
On the road, Al-Fateh have gone 6W 5D 12L from 23 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Hilal Saudi FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are averaging 2.92 goals scored and 0.77 conceded per game recently; Al-Fateh are on 1.44 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Fateh in 75%.
Defensively: Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
Blended
Al-Fateh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh in coming into this match?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have gone 43W 4D 1L in their last 48 games (2.77 PPG), while Al-Fateh have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home or Al-Fateh away?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's home record (2.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at home: 2.91 PPG; Al-Fateh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Al-Hilal Saudi FC or Al-Fateh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al-Fateh in 6%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al-Hilal Saudi FC go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2025, when Al-Hilal Saudi FC won 9-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's record when hosting Al-Fateh specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Al-Hilal Saudi FC
0
Draws
2
Al-Fateh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
From 10 meetings on record, Al-Hilal Saudi FC have won 8, Al-Fateh have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al-Fateh 0-1 Al-Hilal Saudi FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Hilal Saudi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Al-Fateh are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Al-Hilal Saudi FC at 56%, Al-Fateh at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Al-Hilal Saudi FC and 74% for Al-Fateh. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Hilal Saudi FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Hilal Saudi FC home games / Al-Fateh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Hilal Saudi FC play Al-Fateh?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's games and 78% of Al-Fateh's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Hilal Saudi FC vs Al-Fateh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Al-Hilal Saudi FC's matches and 74% of Al-Fateh's.
Do Al-Hilal Saudi FC and Al-Fateh tend to score early?
Al-Hilal Saudi FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Al-Fateh in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 9-0 hammering of Al-Fateh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al-Fateh 9-0 at Kingdom Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.45 xG and Al-Fateh 1.01 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 9-0 for 9 actual goals. Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat their projection by 6.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fateh landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.52 / defence 0.86 against Al-Fateh attack 0.80 / defence 1.19, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al-Hilal Saudi FC 69% | Draw 17% | Al-Fateh 14%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Hilal Saudi FC 73%, Al-Fateh 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al-Fateh's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.77 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 2.91 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 9 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.